Villarreal
vs
Getafe
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Villarreal 1–0 Getafe
The model makes it 55% Villarreal, 28% draw, 17% Getafe — fair odds of 1.82, 3.57 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (18%).
Expected goals: Villarreal 1.52, Getafe 0.61.
Both teams to score: 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
One-sided: Villarreal are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Villarreal's rating is built from 48 La Liga matches and Getafe's from 47, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 854 matches.
Key facts
- Villarreal are 8th on 12 points from 10 games; Getafe are 16th on 9 points from 9 games — La Liga.
- Villarreal have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Valencia.
- Getafe have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Rayo Vallecano.
- Last 6 meetings: Villarreal 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 14 February 2026, ended Getafe 2–1 Villarreal.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Villarreal vs Getafe
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Villarreal at 55% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Villarreal vs Getafe
Villarreal
La Liga
- W2-1away to Valencia24 October 2026
- D0-0Elche17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Real Madrid10 October 2026
- W3-1Levante20 September 2026
- W3-1away to Malaga17 September 2026
Getafe
La Liga
- D1-1Rayo Vallecano19 October 2026
- L0-3away to Barcelona10 October 2026
- W1-0Malaga20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Real Betis17 September 2026
- D1-1Deportivo La Coruna13 September 2026
What these results say
- Villarreal conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Getafe failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Getafe conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Getafe had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Villarreal | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 12 |
| 16 | Getafe | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Villarreal vs Getafe
- 14 February 2026Getafe 2–1 VillarrealLa Liga
- 6 December 2025Villarreal 2–0 GetafeLa Liga
- 30 March 2025Getafe 1–2 VillarrealLa Liga
- 20 October 2024Villarreal 1–1 GetafeLa Liga
- 16 February 2024Villarreal 1–1 GetafeLa Liga
- 30 September 2023Getafe 0–0 VillarrealLa Liga
The two sides
Villarreal carry a model rating of 7.02 against 6.79 for Getafe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for Villarreal and 0.61 for Getafe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Villarreal rate 1.23 in attack and 0.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Getafe rate 0.57 and 0.76.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Villarreal a 0.1% chance of the title and Getafe 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Villarreal the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Villarreal against 0.61 for Getafe. Villarreal's attack/defence rating is 1.23/0.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/0.76 for Getafe.
How the model reaches 55% for Villarreal to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Villarreal to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Villarreal's ratings add 10 points and Getafe's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Villarreal's ratings54%+10
- Getafe's ratings55%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Villarreal at home · Getafe away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
VillarrealGetafe
Villarreal are 8th after 10 La Liga matches (between 4th and 18th so far); Getafe are 16th after 9 (between 7th and 20th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Villarreal 10, Getafe 9.
Villarreal score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Getafe have let in 2 there.
Getafe score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Villarreal have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Villarreal
- at Barcelona22 Nov · La Ligawin 17%
- at Slavia Praha25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 24%
- at Celta Vigo29 Nov · La Ligawin 36%
Getafe
- vs Atletico Madrid22 Nov · La Ligawin 21%
- at FC Iberia 199926 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.