Real Madrid
vs
Celta Vigo
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Real Madrid 2–0 Celta Vigo
The model makes it 70% Real Madrid, 20% draw, 10% Celta Vigo — fair odds of 1.43, 5.00 and 10.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Real Madrid 2.24, Celta Vigo 0.56.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Real Madrid are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Real Madrid's rating is built from 50 La Liga matches and Celta Vigo's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 879 matches.
Key facts
- Real Madrid are 2nd on 30 points from 12 games; Celta Vigo are 11th on 13 points from 12 games — La Liga.
- Real Madrid are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 3-0 win away to Valencia.
- Celta Vigo are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Levante.
- Last 6 meetings: Real Madrid 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 6 March 2026, ended Celta Vigo 1–2 Real Madrid.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo
Has the model earned this number?
Real Madrid at 70%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo
Real Madrid
La Liga
- W3-0away to Valencia7 November 2026
- W3-0away to Racing Santander1 November 2026
- W2-1away to Barcelona25 October 2026
- W4-1Sevilla18 October 2026
- W1-0Villarreal10 October 2026
Celta Vigo
La Liga
- D0-0Levante8 November 2026
- L0-3away to Rayo Vallecano31 October 2026
- D0-0Real Betis25 October 2026
- W2-1Alaves18 October 2026
- D0-0away to Elche11 October 2026
What these results say
- Real Madrid won every one of these 5 matches.
- Real Madrid scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Real Madrid had three goals or more.
- Celta Vigo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Celta Vigo failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Real Madrid | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 10 | +21 | 30 |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Real Madrid
Chance to win the league · 44% today
Celta Vigo
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 11% today
From our La Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo
- 6 March 2026Celta Vigo 1–2 Real MadridLa Liga
- 7 December 2025Real Madrid 0–2 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 4 May 2025Real Madrid 3–2 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 16 January 2025Real Madrid 5–2 Celta VigoCopa del Rey
- 19 October 2024Celta Vigo 1–2 Real MadridLa Liga
- 10 March 2024Real Madrid 4–0 Celta VigoLa Liga
Leading scorers: Real Madrid and Celta Vigo
Real Madrid
GoalsAssists
- Kylian Mbappé132
- J. Bellingham43
Celta Vigo
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Real Madrid a 44% chance of the title and Celta Vigo 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Madrid the highest probability at 70%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Real Madrid against 0.56 for Celta Vigo. Real Madrid's attack/defence rating is 1.67/0.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/0.83 for Celta Vigo.
How the model reaches 70% for Real Madrid to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Real Madrid to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Real Madrid's ratings add 16 points and Celta Vigo's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 70%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level41%−3
- Real Madrid's ratings57%+16
- Celta Vigo's ratings70%+13
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Real Madrid at home · Celta Vigo away
League matches only, La Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Real MadridCelta Vigo
Real Madrid are 2nd after 12 La Liga matches (between 1st and 5th so far); Celta Vigo are 11th after 12 (between 8th and 17th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Real Madrid 12, Celta Vigo 12.
Real Madrid score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Celta Vigo have let in 2 there.
Celta Vigo score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Real Madrid have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Real Madrid
- vs PSV Eindhoven24 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 70%
- vs Alaves28 Nov · La Ligawin 76%
- at Real Sociedad2 Dec · La Ligawin 56%
- at Athletic Club6 Dec · La Ligawin 54%
- at Arsenal9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 30%
Celta Vigo
- vs Bournemouth26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 33%
- vs Villarreal29 Nov · La Ligawin 32%
- at Barcelona6 Dec · La Ligawin 11%
- at Marseille10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 22%
- at Espanyol13 Dec · La Ligawin 29%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.