Malaga
vs
Racing Santander
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Malaga 2–1 Racing Santander
The model makes it 42% Malaga, 26% draw, 32% Racing Santander — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Malaga 1.72, Racing Santander 1.46.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Malaga's rating is built from 10 La Liga matches and Racing Santander's from 9, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 850 matches.
Key facts
- Malaga are bottom on 5 points from 10 games; Racing Santander are 17th on 8 points from 9 games — La Liga.
- Malaga have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Alaves.
- Racing Santander are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Osasuna.
- Last 6 meetings: Racing Santander 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 24 May 2026, ended Malaga 1–1 Racing Santander.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Malaga vs Racing Santander
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Malaga at 42% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Malaga vs Racing Santander
Malaga
La Liga
- D1-1away to Alaves23 October 2026
- L2-5Real Sociedad18 October 2026
- D1-1Espanyol9 October 2026
- L0-1away to Getafe20 September 2026
- L1-3Villarreal17 September 2026
Racing Santander
La Liga
- L0-2away to Osasuna18 October 2026
- D2-2Valencia11 October 2026
- L0-5away to Celta Vigo19 September 2026
- L2-7away to Barcelona16 September 2026
- W2-1Alaves12 September 2026
What these results say
- Malaga did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Malaga conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Malaga scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Racing Santander conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Racing Santander failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Racing Santander had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Malaga | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 5 |
| 17 | Racing Santander | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Malaga vs Racing Santander
- 24 May 2026Malaga 1–1 Racing SantanderSegunda División
- 5 October 2025Racing Santander 3–0 MalagaSegunda División
- 1 February 2025Racing Santander 2–1 MalagaSegunda División
- 23 November 2024Malaga 0–0 Racing SantanderSegunda División
- 5 March 2023Malaga 0–1 Racing SantanderSegunda División
- 1 October 2022Racing Santander 0–0 MalagaSegunda División
Leading scorers: Malaga and Racing Santander
Malaga
GoalsAssists
- Adrián Niño Heredia40
Racing Santander
GoalsAssists
- M. Zabiri70
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Malaga carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.63 for Racing Santander. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for Malaga and 1.46 for Racing Santander. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Malaga rate 0.67 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Racing Santander rate 0.98 and 1.58.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Racing Santander, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Malaga the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Malaga against 1.46 for Racing Santander. Malaga's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.98/1.58 for Racing Santander.
How the model reaches 42% for Malaga to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Malaga to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Malaga's ratings take away 16 points and Racing Santander's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Malaga's ratings28%−16
- Racing Santander's ratings42%+14
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Malaga at home · Racing Santander away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
MalagaRacing Santander
Malaga are 20th after 10 La Liga matches (between 16th and 20th so far); Racing Santander are 17th after 9 (between 3rd and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Malaga 10, Racing Santander 9.
Racing Santander score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Malaga have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Malaga
- at Osasuna22 Nov · La Ligawin 23%
- vs Athletic Club29 Nov · La Ligawin 29%
- at Sevilla6 Dec · La Ligawin 18%
- vs Barcelona13 Dec · La Ligawin 11%
Racing Santander
- vs Real Sociedad22 Nov · La Ligawin 27%
- at Levante29 Nov · La Ligawin 20%
- vs Deportivo La Coruna6 Dec · La Ligawin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.