Elche
vs
Real Betis
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Elche 1–2 Real Betis
The model makes it 34% Elche, 26% draw, 40% Real Betis — fair odds of 2.94, 3.85 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Elche 1.45, Real Betis 1.61.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Edge to Real Betis: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Elche's rating is built from 48 La Liga matches and Real Betis's from 47, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 854 matches.
Key facts
- Elche are 14th on 10 points from 10 games; Real Betis are 4th on 19 points from 9 games — La Liga.
- Elche are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Rayo Vallecano.
- Real Betis have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-5 defeat at home to Barcelona.
- Last 6 meetings: Real Betis 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 12 May 2026, ended Real Betis 2–1 Elche.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Elche vs Real Betis
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Betis at 40% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Elche vs Real Betis
Elche
La Liga
- W3-0away to Rayo Vallecano24 October 2026
- D0-0away to Villarreal17 October 2026
- D0-0Celta Vigo11 October 2026
- W3-1away to Espanyol18 September 2026
- L2-3Real Madrid15 September 2026
Real Betis
La Liga
- L2-5Barcelona17 October 2026
- W5-2Osasuna11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Deportivo La Coruna20 September 2026
- W1-0Getafe17 September 2026
- W2-1away to Villarreal14 September 2026
What these results say
- Real Betis scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Real Betis conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Real Betis.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Elche | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 10 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Elche vs Real Betis
- 12 May 2026Real Betis 2–1 ElcheLa Liga
- 14 January 2026Real Betis 2–1 ElcheCopa del Rey
- 18 August 2025Elche 1–1 Real BetisLa Liga
- 24 February 2023Elche 2–3 Real BetisLa Liga
- 15 August 2022Real Betis 3–0 ElcheLa Liga
- 19 April 2022Real Betis 0–1 ElcheLa Liga
Leading scorers: Elche and Real Betis
Elche
GoalsAssists
- Fer Niño60
Real Betis
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Elche carry a model rating of 6.83 against 7.03 for Real Betis. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.45 goals for Elche and 1.61 for Real Betis. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Elche rate 0.98 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Real Betis rate 1.29 and 0.91.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Elche a 0% chance of the title and Real Betis 0.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Betis the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Elche against 1.61 for Real Betis. Elche's attack/defence rating is 0.98/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.29/0.91 for Real Betis.
How the model reaches 40% for Real Betis to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Real Betis to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Elche's ratings add 1 point and Real Betis's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Elche's ratings30%+1
- Real Betis's ratings40%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Elche at home · Real Betis away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
ElcheReal Betis
Elche are 14th after 10 La Liga matches (between 7th and 20th so far); Real Betis are 4th after 9 (between 2nd and 5th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Elche 10, Real Betis 9.
Elche score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Real Betis have let in 3 there.
Real Betis score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Elche have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Elche
- at Levante22 Nov · La Ligawin 31%
- vs Atletico Madrid29 Nov · La Ligawin 27%
- at Osasuna6 Dec · La Ligawin 36%
- vs Sevilla13 Dec · La Ligawin 45%
Real Betis
- at Sevilla22 Nov · La Ligawin 41%
- at Slovan Bratislava24 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.