Levante
vs
Racing Santander
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Levante 2–1 Racing Santander
The model makes it 56% Levante, 22% draw, 22% Racing Santander — fair odds of 1.79, 4.55 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Levante 2.42, Racing Santander 1.33.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,130 settled matches.
Edge to Levante: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Levante's rating is built from 50 La Liga matches and Racing Santander's from 12, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 879 matches.
Key facts
- Levante are 17th on 11 points from 12 games; Racing Santander are 10th on 14 points from 12 games — La Liga.
- Levante are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Celta Vigo.
- Racing Santander have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Malaga.
- Last 6 meetings: Racing Santander 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 6 April 2025, ended Levante 3–1 Racing Santander.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Levante vs Racing Santander
Has the model earned this number?
Levante at 56%: of 1,625 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.5% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Levante vs Racing Santander
Levante
La Liga
- D0-0away to Celta Vigo8 November 2026
- L0-2Atletico Madrid31 October 2026
- L1-2away to Real Sociedad25 October 2026
- W3-1Athletic Club21 October 2026
- D1-1away to Deportivo La Coruna16 October 2026
Racing Santander
La Liga
- W2-1away to Malaga7 November 2026
- L0-3Real Madrid1 November 2026
- W2-1Espanyol24 October 2026
- L0-2away to Osasuna18 October 2026
- D2-2Valencia11 October 2026
What these results say
- Levante failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Levante conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Racing Santander conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Racing Santander had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Levante | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 11 |
| 10 | Racing Santander | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Levante vs Racing Santander
- 6 April 2025Levante 3–1 Racing SantanderSegunda División
- 13 October 2024Racing Santander 1–0 LevanteSegunda División
- 20 April 2024Racing Santander 0–0 LevanteSegunda División
- 20 November 2023Levante 2–4 Racing SantanderSegunda División
- 25 March 2023Racing Santander 0–1 LevanteSegunda División
- 9 October 2022Levante 0–1 Racing SantanderSegunda División
Leading scorers: Levante and Racing Santander
Levante
GoalsAssists
- Brugui51
Racing Santander
GoalsAssists
- M. Zabiri90
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Racing Santander (10th, with Levante 17th), while our numbers lean to Levante. Levante rate 0.98 in attack and 1.09 in defence, Racing Santander 0.99 and 1.53 (lower is better in defence), so Levante have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 3-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Levante the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Levante against 1.33 for Racing Santander. Levante's attack/defence rating is 0.98/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.99/1.53 for Racing Santander.
How the model reaches 56% for Levante to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Levante to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Levante's ratings add 4 points and Racing Santander's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 56%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level46%+2
- Levante's ratings50%+4
- Racing Santander's ratings56%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Levante at home · Racing Santander away
League matches only, La Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
LevanteRacing Santander
Levante are 17th after 12 La Liga matches (between 8th and 20th so far); Racing Santander are 10th after 12 (between 3rd and 16th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Levante 12, Racing Santander 12.
Levante score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Racing Santander have let in 8 there.
Racing Santander score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Levante have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Levante
- at Rayo Vallecano6 Dec · La Ligawin 30%
- vs Alaves13 Dec · La Ligawin 45%
- at Getafe20 Dec · La Ligawin 34%
- vs Valencia3 Jan · La Ligawin 48%
Racing Santander
- vs Deportivo La Coruna6 Dec · La Ligawin 34%
- at Real Betis13 Dec · La Ligawin 12%
- at Sevilla20 Dec · La Ligawin 22%
- vs Athletic Club3 Jan · La Ligawin 31%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.