Deportivo La Coruna
vs
Barcelona
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Deportivo La Coruna 1–2 Barcelona
The model makes it 20% Deportivo La Coruna, 24% draw, 56% Barcelona — fair odds of 5.00, 4.17 and 1.79.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Deportivo La Coruna 1.01, Barcelona 2.01.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Barcelona are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Deportivo La Coruna's rating is built from 12 La Liga matches and Barcelona's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 879 matches.
Key facts
- Deportivo La Coruna are 9th on 15 points from 12 games; Barcelona are top on 33 points from 12 games — La Liga.
- Deportivo La Coruna have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Espanyol.
- Barcelona have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Atletico Madrid.
- Last 6 meetings: Barcelona 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 29 April 2018, ended Deportivo La Coruna 2–4 Barcelona.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Deportivo La Coruna vs Barcelona
Has the model earned this number?
Barcelona at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Deportivo La Coruna vs Barcelona
Deportivo La Coruna
La Liga
- D0-0away to Espanyol7 November 2026
- W2-1Osasuna2 November 2026
- L0-1away to Atletico Madrid24 October 2026
- D1-1Levante16 October 2026
- L2-3away to Real Sociedad11 October 2026
Barcelona
La Liga
- W2-1away to Atletico Madrid8 November 2026
- W6-1Alaves31 October 2026
- L1-2Real Madrid25 October 2026
- W5-2away to Real Betis17 October 2026
- W3-0Getafe10 October 2026
What these results say
- Deportivo La Coruna failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo La Coruna conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Barcelona scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Barcelona had three goals or more.
- Barcelona won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 15 |
| 1 | Barcelona | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 48 | 13 | +35 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo La Coruna vs Barcelona
- 29 April 2018Deportivo La Coruna 2–4 BarcelonaLa Liga
- 17 December 2017Barcelona 4–0 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 12 March 2017Deportivo La Coruna 2–1 BarcelonaLa Liga
- 15 October 2016Barcelona 4–0 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 20 April 2016Deportivo La Coruna 0–8 BarcelonaLa Liga
- 12 December 2015Barcelona 2–2 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Deportivo La Coruna and Barcelona
Deportivo La Coruna
GoalsAssists
- P. Aubameyang52
Barcelona
GoalsAssists
- Raphinha153
- Lamine Yamal108
- Fermín75
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Deportivo La Coruna a 0% chance of the title and Barcelona 50.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Barcelona the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Deportivo La Coruna against 2.01 for Barcelona. Deportivo La Coruna's attack/defence rating is 0.86/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.78/0.73 for Barcelona.
How the model reaches 56% for Barcelona to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Barcelona to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Deportivo La Coruna's ratings add 12 points and Barcelona's ratings add 15 points, which lands on the published 56%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Deportivo La Coruna's ratings41%+12
- Barcelona's ratings56%+15
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Deportivo La Coruna at home · Barcelona away
League matches only, La Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Deportivo La CorunaBarcelona
Deportivo La Coruna are 9th after 12 La Liga matches (between 4th and 10th so far); Barcelona are 1st after 12 (between 1st and 4th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Deportivo La Coruna 12, Barcelona 12.
Deportivo La Coruna score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Barcelona have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Deportivo La Coruna
- at Racing Santander6 Dec · La Ligawin 40%
- vs Athletic Club13 Dec · La Ligawin 38%
- vs Real Madrid20 Dec · La Ligawin 18%
- at Celta Vigo3 Jan · La Ligawin 28%
Barcelona
- vs Atletico Madrid2 Dec · La Ligawin 52%
- vs Celta Vigo6 Dec · La Ligawin 69%
- vs Manchester City8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 55%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.