Rayo Vallecano
vs
Valencia
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Valencia
The model makes it 47% Rayo Vallecano, 28% draw, 25% Valencia — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Rayo Vallecano 1.50, Valencia 0.95.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Rayo Vallecano's rating is built from 49 La Liga matches and Valencia's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 879 matches.
Key facts
- Rayo Vallecano are 14th on 12 points from 11 games; Valencia are 19th on 9 points from 12 games — La Liga.
- Rayo Vallecano have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Real Sociedad.
- Valencia have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Real Madrid.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 14 May 2026, ended Valencia 1–1 Rayo Vallecano.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia
Has the model earned this number?
Rayo Vallecano at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
La Liga
- L0-1away to Real Sociedad8 November 2026
- W3-0Celta Vigo31 October 2026
- L0-3Elche24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Getafe19 October 2026
- D1-1away to Osasuna19 September 2026
Valencia
La Liga
- L0-3Real Madrid7 November 2026
- W1-0away to Elche1 November 2026
- L1-2Villarreal24 October 2026
- D0-0Athletic Club17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Racing Santander11 October 2026
What these results say
- Rayo Vallecano failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rayo Vallecano conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Valencia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 12 |
| 19 | Valencia | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Rayo Vallecano
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 13% today
Valencia
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 31% today
From our La Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia
- 14 May 2026Valencia 1–1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 1 December 2025Rayo Vallecano 1–1 ValenciaLa Liga
- 19 April 2025Rayo Vallecano 1–1 ValenciaLa Liga
- 7 December 2024Valencia 0–1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 12 May 2024Valencia 0–0 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 19 December 2023Rayo Vallecano 0–1 ValenciaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Rayo Vallecano and Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
GoalsAssists
- Sergio Camello72
Valencia
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rayo Vallecano the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano against 0.95 for Valencia. Rayo Vallecano's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.02 for Valencia.
How the model reaches 47% for Rayo Vallecano to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Rayo Vallecano to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Rayo Vallecano's ratings add 3 points and Valencia's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level42%−2
- Rayo Vallecano's ratings45%+3
- Valencia's ratings47%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Rayo Vallecano at home · Valencia away
League matches only, La Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Rayo VallecanoValencia
Rayo Vallecano are 14th after 11 La Liga matches (between 8th and 19th so far); Valencia are 19th after 12 (between 11th and 20th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Rayo Vallecano 11, Valencia 12.
Rayo Vallecano score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Valencia have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Rayo Vallecano
- at Real Betis28 Nov · La Ligawin 18%
- vs Levante6 Dec · La Ligawin 43%
- at Villarreal13 Dec · La Ligawin 20%
- vs Malaga20 Dec · La Ligawin 56%
- vs Atletico Madrid3 Jan · La Ligawin 24%
Valencia
- vs Osasuna29 Nov · La Ligawin 44%
- at Getafe6 Dec · La Ligawin 29%
- at Atletico Madrid13 Dec · La Ligawin 12%
- vs Espanyol20 Dec · La Ligawin 37%
- at Levante3 Jan · La Ligawin 25%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.