Our model leans to Rep. Of Ireland here, but not by much: 41% (fair odds 2.44) against 30% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-0, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Our model leans to Norway here, but not by much: 41% (fair odds 2.44) against 27% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-2, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →We went back over 2,823 matches we called before kick-off. In the middle of the range our numbers hold up. Teams we gave 70% or more won 62.0% of the time, not the 78.2% we said.
More →Norway 1–2 Portugal finished with Portugal winning. Our model had called it exactly: it published 1-2, a scoreline it rated at 9%.
More →Armenia 2–3 Montenegro finished with Montenegro winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 50%, though it expected 0-2 rather than 2–3.
More →Belgium 0–1 France finished with France winning. Our model had called it exactly: it published 0-1, a scoreline it rated at 10%.
More →Georgia 0–0 Ukraine finished with a draw. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to Ukraine at 38%, and rated the actual result at 30%.
More →Leon 2–1 FC Juarez finished with Leon winning. Our model had called it exactly: it published 2-1, a scoreline it rated at 10%.
More →Necaxa 2–4 Club America finished with Club America winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 44%, though it expected 1-2 rather than 2–4.
More →Türkiye 1–4 Italy finished with Italy winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 42%, though it expected 1-2 rather than 1–4.
More →Independiente Medellin host Millonarios in a game our model cannot separate: 39% for the home side, 30% for the draw and 31% for the visitors.
More →New York Red Bulls host St. Louis City in a game our model cannot separate: 33% for the home side, 28% for the draw and 39% for the visitors.
More →England 2, Spain 3. Yamal scored in the second minute, England led at half-time, Kane missed a penalty, and two Spanish substitutes turned it round.
More →England 2–3 Spain finished with Spain winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 39%, though it expected 1-2 rather than 2–3.
More →Austria 3–1 Kosovo finished with Austria winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 41%, though it expected 2-1 rather than 3–1.
More →Denmark 2–0 Wales finished with Denmark winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 42%, though it expected 2-1 rather than 2–0.
More →FC Dallas 1–0 Los Angeles FC finished with FC Dallas winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 37%, though it expected 2-1 rather than 1–0.
More →Santos Laguna 1–0 CF Pachuca finished with Santos Laguna winning. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to CF Pachuca at 39%, and rated the actual result at 31%.
More →Our model leans to Inter Miami here, but not by much: 44% (fair odds 2.27) against 25% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-2, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Fortaleza FC host Deportes Tolima in a game our model cannot separate: 32% for the home side, 32% for the draw and 36% for the visitors.
More →