Santos Laguna vs CF Pachuca Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Santos Laguna 1-0 CF Pachuca.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Santos Laguna, 29% draw, 41% CF Pachuca — fair odds of 3.33, 3.45 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CF Pachuca at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Santos Laguna vs CF Pachuca
Line-ups
- 1C. AcevedoG
- 18F. PardoD
- 25Felipe SánchezD
- 14E. OronaD
- 3M. CuevasM
- 23F. CáseresM
- 21Fran VillalbaM
- 7D. GonzálezM
- 77K. PalaciosF
- 20E. LozanoF
- 10E. BullaudeF
- 26R. SordoM
- 17E. EcheverrÃaD
- 19E. AguirreF
- 4J. AbellaD
- 193Luis GómezM
- 6J. GüémezM
- 33H. HolguínG
- 29Tahiel Adrián Jiménez SánchezF
- 5A. LópezM
- 25C. MorenoG
- 12S. SantosD
- 4Eduardo BauermannD
- 2S. BarretoD
- 15F. VenegasD
- 30S. RodríguezM
- 16C. RiveraM
- 21N. VallejoM
- 26Alán Ernesto Bautista GutiérrezM
- 6M. IsaísM
- 23S. RondónF
- 32P. BudibD
- 206Thomas ContrerasM
- 31J. EulogioG
- 211C. HernandezF
- 11O. IdrissiF
- 7R. PizarroM
- 195E. SotoD
- 14C. SánchezD
- 187G. ÃlvarezF
Form going into Santos Laguna vs CF Pachuca
Santos Laguna
All competitions we cover
- W3-2away to Toluca21 September 2026
- W2-1FC Juarez14 September 2026
- L0-1away to Cruz Azul6 September 2026
- D0-0Tigres UANL30 August 2026
- L2-3away to Puebla23 August 2026
CF Pachuca
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Club Tijuana21 September 2026
- W3-0away to Atlante FC12 September 2026
- W2-0away to FC Juarez5 September 2026
- D1-1Guadalajara Chivas29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Atletico San Luis23 August 2026
What these results say
- Santos Laguna conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- CF Pachuca went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- CF Pachuca scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Santos Laguna | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 19 |
| 13 | CF Pachuca | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Santos Laguna vs CF Pachuca
- 12 April 2026CF Pachuca 4–2 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 9 November 2025Santos Laguna 1–0 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 21 January 2025CF Pachuca 2–1 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 23 October 2024Santos Laguna 1–1 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 21 April 2024Santos Laguna 0–2 CF PachucaLiga MX
Leading scorers: Santos Laguna and CF Pachuca
Santos Laguna
GoalsAssists
- Tahiel Adrián Jiménez Sánchez50
CF Pachuca
GoalsAssists
- S. Rondón131
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Santos Laguna beat CF Pachuca 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for CF Pachuca at 41% and given a win for Santos Laguna 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Francisco Villalba (penalty) 45+3' for Santos Laguna.
How the call on Santos Laguna v CF Pachuca has moved
First published on 13 Sep at 36% / 31% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 30% / 29% / 41%: the biggest move is CF Pachuca's chance of winning, up 8 points.
- Santos Laguna win30%▼ −6
- Draw29%▼ −2
- CF Pachuca win41%▲ +8
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.