Belgium vs France UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Belgium 0-1 France.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Belgium, 30% draw, 37% France — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts France at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Belgium vs France
Line-ups
- 1S. LammensG
- 21T. CastagneD
- 15N. NgoyD
- 4B. MecheleD
- 18J. SeysD
- 6R. LaviaM
- 8Y. TielemansM
- 19Diego MoreiraM
- 7K. De BruyneM
- 10M. GodtsM
- 17C. De KetelaereF
- 2Z. DebastD
- 13J. De BusserG
- 16M. KeitaM
- 9R. LukakuF
- 14D. LukebakioF
- 22M. Fernandez-PardoF
- 11L. OpendaF
- 23N. RaskinM
- 20H. VanakenM
- 16M. MaignanG
- 2P. KaluluD
- 22J. JacquetD
- 17M. LacroixD
- 13A. DioufD
- 18M. AklioucheM
- 21L. da CunhaM
- 6E. CamavingaM
- 20D. DouéF
- 19E. LepaulF
- 12B. BarcolaF
- 9R. CherkiM
- 15L. YoroD
- 7O. DembéléF
- 8M. KonéM
- 5J. KoundéD
- 11M. OliseM
- 1G. RestesG
- 3A. TruffertD
- 4D. UpamecanoD
Form going into Belgium vs France
Belgium
UEFA Nations League
- W2-0away to Italy25 September 2026
France
UEFA Nations League
- W1-0away to Türkiye25 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 1 | France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Belgium vs France
- 14 October 2024Belgium 1–2 FranceUEFA Nations League
- 9 September 2024France 2–0 BelgiumUEFA Nations League
- 1 July 2024France 1–0 BelgiumEuro Championship
- 7 October 2021Belgium 2–3 FranceUEFA Nations League
- 10 July 2018France 1–0 BelgiumWorld Cup
Leading scorers: Belgium and France
Belgium
GoalsAssists
- D. Lukebakio21
France
GoalsAssists
- M. Olise42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
France won 1–0 at Belgium. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for France at 37%. The goal: Michael Olise 88' for France.