28 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

Georgia vs Ukraine UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena, Tbilisi
Referee: Aliyar Agayev
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Georgia 0-0 Ukraine.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Georgia, 30% draw, 38% Ukraine — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Ukraine at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Georgia3%Draw93%Ukraine4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
Vladyslav Vanat
45'
🔁Matviy Ponomarenkoout: Roman Yaremchuk
45'
🔁Oleksandr Pikhalyonokout: Oleg Ocheretko
45'
🔁Vladyslav Vanatout: Danylo Sikan
46'
Danylo Sikan
Saba Goglichidze
54'
65'
🔁Maksym Khlanout: Mykola Shaparenko
🔁Georges Mikautadzeout: Giorgi Kvernadze
67'
🔁Otar Kiteishviliout: Anzor Mekvabishvili
73'
🔁Giorgi Chakvetadzeout: Zuriko Davitashvili
73'
75'
Valeriy Bondar
79'
🔁Oleksandr Zubkovout: Viktor Tsygankov
Anzor Mekvabishvili
81'
89'
Oleg Ocheretko
🔁Giorgi Kochorashviliout: Irakli Yegoian
90+2'

Match stats — Georgia vs Ukraine

49%Possession51%
14Shots7
5On target2
4Corners0

Line-ups

Georgia 5-3-2
  • 1G. MamardashviliG
  • 2O. KakabadzeD
  • 5S. GoglichidzeD
  • 3L. DvaliD
  • 4L. LochoshviliD
  • 19G. TsitaishviliD
  • 6G. KochorashviliM
  • 8O. KiteishviliM
  • 10G. ChakvetadzeM
  • 22G. MikautadzeF
  • 7K. KvaratskheliaF
Substitutes
  • 23L. GugeshashviliG
  • 9Z. DavitashviliF
  • 13D. KereselidzeG
  • 16S. KharebashviliD
  • 17G. KvernadzeF
  • 12S. LobzhanidzeF
  • 15G. MamageishviliM
  • 14A. MekvabishviliM
  • 20S. SazonovD
Coach: R. Svanadze
Ukraine 3-5-2
  • 12A. TrubinG
  • 5V. BondarD
  • 3E. SarapiyD
  • 4T. MykhavkoD
  • 20O. ZubkovM
  • 17O. PikhalyonokM
  • 19E. NazarynaM
  • 21M. KhlanM
  • 2B. MykhailichenkoM
  • 8M. PonomarenkoF
  • 11V. VanatF
Substitutes
  • 18O. OcheretkoM
  • 23D. RiznykG
  • 10M. ShaparenkoM
  • 14D. SikanF
  • 15V. TsygankovF
  • 16V. VeletenM
  • 9R. YaremchukF
  • 7A. YarmolenkoM
  • 1H. ErmakovG
Coach: Andrea Maldera

Form going into Georgia vs Ukraine

Georgia

UEFA Nations League

  • L0-1Northern Ireland25 September 2026

Ukraine

UEFA Nations League

  • W1-0away to Hungary25 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Georgia402202-22
3Ukraine411225-34

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Georgia vs Ukraine

  • 16 November 2024Georgia 1–1 UkraineUEFA Nations League
  • 11 October 2024Ukraine 1–0 GeorgiaUEFA Nations League

The result against the call

Georgia and Ukraine drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Ukraine at 38% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.