27 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Norway vs Portugal UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Ullevaal Stadion, Oslo
Referee: Francois Letexier
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Norway 1-2 Portugal.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Norway, 28% draw, 37% Portugal — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Portugal at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Norway0%Draw4%Portugal96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Julian Ryerson
16'
17'
⚽Joao Felixassist: Pedro Neto
20'
Jorge Fernando Pinheiro de Jesus
Fredrik Aursnes
47'
49'
João Palhinha
⚽Erling Haalandassist: Patrick Berg
51'
54'
⚽Gonçalo Ramos
55'
🔁João Nevesout: Vitinha
56'
🔁Francisco Conceicaoout: Rafael Leão
58'
•Gonçalo Ramos
Kristoffer Ajer
65'
🔁Julian Ryersonout: Leo Østigård
66'
67'
Renato Veiga
🔁Patrick Bergout: Oscar Bobb
72'
76'
Vitinha
76'
João Cancelo
80'
🔁João Palhinhaout: Rúben Neves
81'
🔁Gonçalo Ramosout: Francisco Trincão
🔁Antonio Nusaout: Jörgen Strand Larsen
81'
87'
🔁Pedro Netoout: Bernardo Silva
87'
Rúben Dias
90+3'
Bernardo Silva

Match stats — Norway vs Portugal

62%Possession38%
22Shots12
6On target4
7Corners2

Line-ups

Norway 4-3-3
  • 1Ø. NylandG
  • 7F. AursnesD
  • 3K. AjerD
  • 17T. HeggemD
  • 14J. RyersonD
  • 10M. ØdegaardM
  • 8S. BergeM
  • 6P. BergM
  • 21A. SchjelderupF
  • 9E. HaalandF
  • 20A. NusaF
Substitutes
  • 2O. BjørtuftD
  • 5F. SjøvoldD
  • 12S. TangvikG
  • 19T. AasgaardM
  • 15O. Didrik BlombergM
  • 22Oscar BobbM
  • 23E. BotheimF
  • 11J. Strand LarsenF
  • 4L. ØstigårdD
Coach: S. Solbakken
Portugal 4-1-3-2
  • 1Diogo CostaG
  • 20João CanceloD
  • 3Rúben DiasD
  • 13Renato VeigaD
  • 19Nuno MendesD
  • 6João PalhinhaM
  • 14Francisco ConceiçãoM
  • 15João NevesM
  • 18Pedro NetoM
  • 11João FélixF
  • 9Gonçalo RamosF
Substitutes
  • 8Gonçalo InácioD
  • 17Rafael LeãoF
  • 21Rúben NevesM
  • 7Cristiano RonaldoF
  • 10Bernardo SilvaM
  • 12Rui SilvaG
  • 22Samuel SoaresG
  • 5Nuno TavaresD
  • 16TrincãoF
Coach: Jorge Jesus

Form going into Norway vs Portugal

Norway

UEFA Nations League

  • W3-2Denmark24 September 2026

Portugal

UEFA Nations League

  • W1-0Wales24 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Norway410368-23
1Portugal440094+512

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Norway and Portugal

Norway

GoalsAssists

  • E. Haaland30

Portugal

GoalsAssists

  • Gonçalo Ramos31
  • João Félix31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Portugal won 2–1 at Norway. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Portugal at 37%. The goals: Joao Felix 17' for Portugal, Erling Haaland 51' for Norway, Gonçalo Ramos 54' for Portugal.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.