Columbus Crew
vs
Inter Miami
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Columbus Crew 1–2 Inter Miami
The model makes it 31% Columbus Crew, 29% draw, 40% Inter Miami — fair odds of 3.23, 3.45 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Columbus Crew 1.26, Inter Miami 1.55.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Columbus Crew wins, grey are draws, red are Inter Miami wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Inter Miami at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami
Columbus Crew
- L0-1New York Red Bulls12 September 2026
- L1-2away to DC United9 September 2026
- W3-0Colorado Rapids5 September 2026
- L1-3New England Revolution30 August 2026
- L2-3away to Nashville SC23 August 2026
Inter Miami
- D2-2Nashville SC12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Chicago Fire10 September 2026
- D2-2Atlanta United FC5 September 2026
- W7-1CF Montreal29 August 2026
- L1-2Toronto FC22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami
- 1 August 2026Inter Miami 2–2 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
Previous meetings on this site's own match record, which begins in July 2026 — any earlier meeting between these clubs is not listed here.
Leading scorers: Columbus Crew and Inter Miami
Columbus Crew
No leading scorers listed yet.
Inter Miami
- L. Messi19 goals11 assists
- L. Suárez11 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Columbus Crew carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.7 for Inter Miami. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for Columbus Crew and 1.55 for Inter Miami. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Columbus Crew rate 0.60 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Inter Miami rate 0.94 and 1.29.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter Miami the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Columbus Crew against 1.55 for Inter Miami. Columbus Crew's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.29 for Inter Miami.