New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: New York Red Bulls 0-3 St. Louis City.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% New York Red Bulls, 28% draw, 39% St. Louis City — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St. Louis City at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City
Line-ups
- 34E. HorvathG
- 12D. NealisD
- 26T. ParkerD
- 14J. BazánD
- 59D. PadelfordD
- 37M. SofoM
- 60S. KoneM
- 10E. ForsbergM
- 11J. RuvalcabaF
- 13E. Choupo-MotingF
- 7C. CowellF
- 45C. FaelloD
- 88Pedro CastroM
- 80N. WorthM
- 6R. VoloderD
- 66T. RosboroughM
- 70A. RojasF
- 77J. McCarthyG
- 1R. BürkiG
- 21D. PolvaraD
- 32T. BaumgartlD
- 27F. FallD
- 6C. WallemM
- 24D. EdelmanM
- 8C. DurkinM
- 14T. TotlandM
- 19C. HolseF
- 9Rafael NavarroF
- 23A. MățanF
- 28M. PerezM
- 20Rafael SantosD
- 11S. BecherF
- 77Jeong Sang-BinF
- 59M. JoynerM
- 39B. LundtG
- 5L. MacNaughtonD
- 99J. OrozcoD
- 7T. OstrákM
Form going into New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City
New York Red Bulls
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to New York City FC18 September 2026
- W1-0away to Columbus Crew12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Los Angeles FC10 September 2026
- D0-0away to Seattle Sounders6 September 2026
- L1-3Philadelphia Union29 August 2026
St. Louis City
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Toronto FC20 September 2026
- W4-2Minnesota United FC13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Portland Timbers10 September 2026
- W3-1away to Vancouver Whitecaps6 September 2026
- D3-3FC Dallas30 August 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for New York Red Bulls had two goals or fewer.
- St. Louis City went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- St. Louis City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- St. Louis City conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | New York Red Bulls | 32 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 43 | 59 | -16 | 39 |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 58 | 47 | +11 | 51 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City
- 24 January 2026New York Red Bulls 3–1 St. Louis CityFriendlies Clubs
- 29 January 2025New York Red Bulls 0–1 St. Louis CityFriendlies Clubs
- 10 February 2024St. Louis City 2–2 New York Red BullsFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: New York Red Bulls and St. Louis City
New York Red Bulls
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 43 league goals as a side.
St. Louis City
GoalsAssists
- Rafael Navarro196
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
St. Louis City won 3–0 at New York Red Bulls. The model had made a win for St. Louis City its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Rafael Navarro Leal 5' for St. Louis City, Simon Becher 87' for St. Louis City, Tomas Ostrak 90+1' for St. Louis City.
How the call on New York Red Bulls v St. Louis City has moved
First published on 12 Sep at 34% / 30% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 33% / 28% / 39%: the biggest move is St. Louis City's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- New York Red Bulls win33%▼ −1
- Draw28%▼ −2
- St. Louis City win39%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.