1 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Wales vs Norway UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff
Referee: Alejandro Hernandez
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Wales 2-1 Norway.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Wales, 27% draw, 41% Norway — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Norway at 41%: of 2,595 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.7% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Wales96%Draw4%Norway0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
⚽Oscar Bobbassist: Martin Odegaard
16'
🔁Julian Ryersonout: Marcus Pedersen
Jordan James
37'
⚽Daniel Jamesassist: Sorba Thomas
38'
45'
🔁Fredrik Aursnesout: Thelo Aasgaard
46'
Torbjørn Heggem
⚽Neco Williams
48'
49'
🔁Oscar Bobbout: Leo Østigård
75'
🔁David Moller Wolfeout: Jörgen Strand Larsen
75'
🔁Andreas Schjelderupout: Antonio Nusa
🔁Jordan Jamesout: Josh Sheehan
75'
🔁Liam Cullenout: Joel Colwill
76'
🔁Daniel Jamesout: Brennan Johnson
76'
🔁Lewis Koumasout: Mark Harris
85'
90+3'
Martin Odegaard
Sorba Thomas
90+3'
Ethan Ampadu
90+3'

Match stats — Wales vs Norway

55%Possession45%
12Shots12
6On target4
3Corners3

Line-ups

Wales 4-2-3-1
  • 12D. WardG
  • 3N. WilliamsD
  • 6B. CabangoD
  • 4B. DaviesD
  • 15J. DasilvaD
  • 5E. AmpaduM
  • 17J. JamesM
  • 20D. JamesM
  • 10L. CullenM
  • 19S. ThomasM
  • 9L. KoumasF
Substitutes
  • 8W. BurnsF
  • 7Cian AshfordF
  • 23J. ColwillM
  • 1D. CornellG
  • 18M. HarrisF
  • 11B. JohnsonF
  • 21T. KingG
  • 2C. MephamD
  • 13K. MooreF
Coach: Craig Bellamy
Norway 4-3-3
  • 1Ø. NylandG
  • 14J. RyersonD
  • 3K. AjerD
  • 17T. HeggemD
  • 5D. Møller WolfeD
  • 10M. ØdegaardM
  • 8S. BergeM
  • 7F. AursnesM
  • 22Oscar BobbF
  • 9E. HaalandF
  • 21A. SchjelderupF
Substitutes
  • 12S. TangvikG
  • 18F. SjøvoldD
  • 13E. SelvikG
  • 16M. PedersenD
  • 4L. ØstigårdD
  • 20A. NusaM
  • 11J. Strand LarsenF
  • 23E. BotheimF
  • 15O. Didrik BlombergM
Coach: S. Solbakken

Form going into Wales vs Norway

Wales

UEFA Nations League

  • L0-2away to Denmark27 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Portugal24 September 2026

Norway

UEFA Nations League

  • L1-2Portugal27 September 2026
  • W3-2Denmark24 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Wales410325-33
4Norway410368-23

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Wales and Norway

Wales

No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

Norway

GoalsAssists

  • E. Haaland30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Wales beat Norway 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Norway at 41% and given a win for Wales 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Oscar Bobb 11' for Norway, Daniel James 38' for Wales, Neco Williams 48' for Wales. Sent off: Torbjørn Heggem (Norway) 46'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.