27 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

Austria vs Kosovo UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Ernst Happel Stadion, Vienna
Referee: Nick Walsh
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Austria 3-1 Kosovo.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Austria, 28% draw, 31% Kosovo — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Austria at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Austria99%Draw1%Kosovo0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Kevin Danso
14'
22'
Ron Raqi
⚽David Affengruberassist: Romano Schmid
23'
⚽Junior Chukwubuike Adamuassist: Patrick Wimmer
45+2'
45'
🔁Ermal Krasniqiout: Edon Zhegrova
45'
🔁Baton Zabergjaout: Milot Avdyli
45'
🔁Veldin Hodzaout: Valmir Matoshi
🔁Junior Chukwubuike Adamuout: Sasa Kalajdzic
58'
🔁Maximilian Wöberout: Alexander Prass
58'
🔁Romano Schmidout: Carney Chukwuemeka
58'
⚽Carney Chukwuemeka
61'
65'
🔁Arijanet Murićout: Amir Saipi
🔁Paul Wannerout: Vasilije Markovic
68'
🔁Nikolas Veratschnigout: Marco Friedl
79'
80'
🔁Vedat Muriqiout: Fisnik Asllani
David Affengruber
81'
83'
⚽Edon Zhegrova (pen)
85'
Valmir Matoshi

Match stats — Austria vs Kosovo

52%Possession48%
11Shots6
6On target1
5Corners1

Line-ups

Austria 4-2-3-1
  • 13Christian ZawieschitzkyG
  • 15N. VeratschnigD
  • 2D. AffengruberD
  • 3K. DansoD
  • 14M. WöberD
  • 4X. SchlagerM
  • 6N. SeiwaldM
  • 21P. WimmerM
  • 10P. WannerM
  • 18R. SchmidM
  • 8J. AdamuF
Substitutes
  • 23M. FriedlD
  • 17C. ChukwuemekaM
  • 19M. GrüllF
  • 20S. HorvathM
  • 9S. KalajdzicF
  • 11C. LangM
  • 7V. MarkovicM
  • 5S. PoschD
  • 22A. PrassD
Coach: R. Rangnick
Kosovo 3-4-3
  • 1A. MurićG
  • 5L. DellovaD
  • 4I. KrasniqiD
  • 2R. RaciD
  • 15M. VojvodaM
  • 23L. AvdullahuM
  • 20V. HodžaM
  • 13D. GallapeniM
  • 17E. KrasniqiF
  • 18V. MuriqiF
  • 14B. ZabërgjaF
Substitutes
  • 11F. AsllaniF
  • 3M. AvdyliM
  • 12V. BekajG
  • 22V. DemakuM
  • 19D. KacuriM
  • 8V. MatoshiM
  • 6Erblin OsmaniM
  • 7M. RashicaM
  • 9A. RrahmaniF
Coach: F. Foda

Form going into Austria vs Kosovo

Austria

UEFA Nations League

  • W3-1Israel24 September 2026

Kosovo

UEFA Nations League

  • W1-0Rep. Of Ireland24 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Austria422095+48
2Kosovo412134-15

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Austria beat Kosovo 3–1. The model had made a win for Austria its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: David Affengruber 23' for Austria, Junior Chukwubuike Adamu 45+2' for Austria, Carney Chukwuemeka 61' for Austria, Edon Zhegrova (penalty) 83' for Kosovo.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.