28 September 2026, 03:10 UTC

Necaxa vs Club America Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes
Referee: Guillermo Pacheco
Full time2 – 4

Final score: Necaxa 2-4 Club America.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Necaxa, 28% draw, 42% Club America — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Club America at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Necaxa0%Draw1%Club America99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

33'
Erick Sánchez
⚽Owen Gonzálezassist: Julián Carranza
37'
39'
⚽Henry Martin
⚽Julián Carranza (pen)
43'
45+7'
•Henry Martin
45+10'
⚽Henry Martin (pen)
56'
⚽Miguel Borja
Raúl Martínez
62'
🔁Carlos Vargasout: Mauro Zaleta
63'
🔁Owen Gonzálezout: Javier Ruiz
63'
🔁Matias Espindolaout: Juan Torres
72'
🔁Raúl Martínezout: Kevin Ante
72'
75'
⚽Henry Martin (pen)
75'
🔁Carlos Álvarezout: Alexis Gutierrez
75'
🔁Miguel Borjaout: alejandro cardenas
75'
🔁Edwin Cerrilloout: Ícaro Da Conceição
🔁Miguel Rodriguezout: Juan Valencia
82'
82'
🔁Álex Zendejasout: Derek Ramses Jimenez
82'
🔁Dagoberto Espinozaout: Kevin Alvarez
Diego Ochoa
87'
Javier Ruiz
90'
90+5'
Cristian Borja

Match stats — Necaxa vs Club America

53%Possession47%
15Shots20
6On target9
3Corners5

Line-ups

Necaxa 4-3-3
  • 12L. JiménezG
  • 33R. MartínezD
  • 5Kaiky NavesD
  • 15D. OchoaD
  • 88C. VargasD
  • 6D. LeyvaM
  • 16P. PedrazaM
  • 13Owen de Jesús González OjedaM
  • 99M. RodríguezF
  • 9J. CarranzaF
  • 21M. EspíndolaF
Substitutes
  • 14M. ZaletaM
  • 17R. CortézM
  • 7K. RoseroF
  • 1C. AndradeG
  • 8L. FaravelliM
  • 2E. MartínezD
  • 20F. MéndezD
  • 10J. RuizM
  • 11J. TorresM
Coach: M. Varini
Club America 4-4-2
  • 30R. CotaG
  • 34D. EspinozaD
  • 2E. LaraD
  • 32M. VázquezD
  • 26C. BorjaD
  • 10A. ZendejasM
  • 28É. SánchezM
  • 6E. CerrilloM
  • 8Carlos ÁlvarezM
  • 9H. MartínF
  • 93M. BorjaF
Substitutes
  • 189A. CardenasF
  • 20A. GutiérrezM
  • 206Derek Ramses JimenezM
  • 29R. JuárezD
  • 1L. MalagónG
  • 15S. RamosD
  • 24F. RossanoD
  • 217IcaroM
  • 5K. ÁlvarezD
Coach: G. Almada

Form going into Necaxa vs Club America

Necaxa

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3away to Atletico San Luis19 September 2026
  • L0-1Puebla12 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Tigres UANL6 September 2026
  • L1-3Cruz Azul29 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Pumas UNAM24 August 2026

Club America

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2Guadalajara Chivas20 September 2026
  • L3-4away to Cruz Azul13 September 2026
  • W2-0Puebla30 August 2026
  • W2-1away to FC Juarez22 August 2026
  • W3-0Atletico San Luis16 August 2026

What these results say

  • Necaxa did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Necaxa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Necaxa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Club America scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Club America had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Necaxa142481627-1110
1Club America148423419+1528

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Necaxa vs Club America

  • 31 January 2026Club America 2–0 NecaxaLiga MX
  • 27 July 2025Necaxa 1–1 Club AmericaLiga MX
  • 15 February 2025Club America 2–3 NecaxaLiga MX
  • 22 September 2024Necaxa 1–1 Club AmericaLiga MX
  • 28 January 2024Necaxa 0–0 Club AmericaLiga MX

The full Necaxa vs Club America record →

Leading scorers: Necaxa and Club America

Necaxa

GoalsAssists

  • J. Carranza72

Club America

GoalsAssists

  • H. Martín83
  • M. Borja60
  • B. Rodríguez53

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Club America won 4–2 at Necaxa. The model had made a win for Club America its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Owen González 37' for Necaxa, Henry Martin 39' for Club America, Julián Carranza (penalty) 43' for Necaxa, Henry Martin (penalty) 45+10' for Club America, Miguel Borja 56' for Club America, Henry Martin (penalty) 75' for Club America.

How the call on Necaxa v Club America has moved

First published on 14 Sep at 42% / 28% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 30% / 28% / 42%: the biggest move is Necaxa's chance of winning, down 12 points.

  1. Necaxa win30%▼ −12
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Club America win42%▲ +12

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.