28 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Türkiye vs Italy UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Bursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Bursa
Referee: Michael Oliver
Full time1 – 4

Final score: Türkiye 1-4 Italy.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Türkiye, 28% draw, 42% Italy — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Italy at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Türkiye0%Draw1%Italy99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
⚽Alessandro Bastoni
22'
⚽Davide Frattesi
27'
⚽Michael Kayodeassist: Pio Esposito
Can Yilmaz Uzun
38'
45'
🔁Giacomo Raspadoriout: Nicolo Cambiaghi
🔁Merih Demiralout: Abdulkerim Bardakçı
45'
🔁Can Yilmaz Uzunout: Kerem Aktürkoğlu
45'
🔁Orkun Kökçüout: Ismail Yüksek
45'
⚽Baris Alper Yilmazassist: Oğuz Aydın
47'
50'
⚽Pio Esposito
Baris Alper Yilmaz
54'
63'
🔁Sebastiano Espositoout: Issa Doumbia
Ozan Kabak
72'
75'
🔁Pio Espositoout: Gianluca Scamacca
🔁Salih Özcanout: Demir Ege Tıknaz
76'
76'
🔁Nicolo Fagioliout: Alessandro Romano
🔁Baris Alper Yilmazout: Deniz Gül
80'
82'
🔁Davide Frattesiout: Giovanni Di Lorenzo

Match stats — Türkiye vs Italy

54%Possession46%
15Shots14
3On target8
6Corners2

Line-ups

Türkiye 3-4-3
  • 1A. BayındırG
  • 2Z. ÇelikD
  • 3M. DemiralD
  • 15O. KabakD
  • 18O. AydınM
  • 6O. KökçüM
  • 5S. ÖzcanM
  • 13E. ElmalıM
  • 10A. GülerF
  • 21B. YılmazF
  • 11C. UzunF
Substitutes
  • 16İ. YüksekM
  • 8E. TıknazM
  • 12M. ŞengezerG
  • 23O. KocukG
  • 17İ. KahveciM
  • 20F. KadıoğluD
  • 9D. GülF
  • 22M. EskihellaçD
  • 14A. BardakcıD
Coach: V. Montella
Italy 4-3-3
  • 1G. DonnarummaG
  • 2M. KayodeD
  • 19G. ScalviniD
  • 21A. BastoniD
  • 3M. RuggeriD
  • 16D. FrattesiM
  • 8S. TonaliM
  • 6N. FagioliM
  • 10G. RaspadoriF
  • 7F. EspositoF
  • 23S. EspositoF
Substitutes
  • 17N. CambiaghiF
  • 14G. VicarioG
  • 12M. CarnesecchiG
  • 22G. Di LorenzoD
  • 15I. DoumbiaM
  • 20D. GhilardiD
  • 9M. KeanF
  • 13R. MandragoraM
  • 4A. RomanoM
Coach: R. Mancini

Form going into Türkiye vs Italy

Türkiye

UEFA Nations League

  • L0-1France25 September 2026

Italy

UEFA Nations League

  • L0-2Belgium25 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Türkiye4004211-90
2Italy421185+37

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Türkiye vs Italy

  • 4 June 2024Italy 0–0 TürkiyeFriendlies
  • 29 March 2022Türkiye 2–3 ItalyFriendlies
  • 11 June 2021Türkiye 0–3 ItalyEuro Championship

The full Türkiye vs Italy record →

The result against the call

Italy won 4–1 at Türkiye. The model had made a win for Italy its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Alessandro Bastoni 9' for Italy, Davide Frattesi 22' for Italy, Michael Kayode 27' for Italy, Baris Alper Yilmaz 47' for Türkiye, Pio Esposito 50' for Italy.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.