28 September 2026, 01:00 UTC

Leon vs FC Juarez Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio León, Leon
Referee: Yonatan Peinado Aguirre
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Leon 2-1 FC Juarez.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Leon, 26% draw, 24% FC Juarez — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Leon at 50% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Sebastián Vegas
3'
🔁Jordi Cortizoout: Juan Dominguez
45'
🔁Sebastián Vegasout: Salvador Reyes
45'
Juan Guevara
53'
🔁Fernando Beltranout: Jose Alvarado
58'
🔁Ismael Díazout: Edgar Guerra
58'
62'
🔁Ricardo Oliveiraout: Raymundo Fulgencio
62'
🔁Manuel Mayorgaout: Eder Lopez
⚽Francisco Nevarez (OG)
76'
77'
•Sebastián Jurado
79'
Jesus Murillo
81'
🔁Gilberto Sepulvedaout: Luca Dupuy
83'
Francisco Nevarez
🔁Diber Cambindoout: Paul Bellón
83'
90+1'
•Sebastián Jurado
90+4'
⚽Oscar Estupiñan (pen)
90+5'
🔁Francisco Nevarezout: Javier Aquino
90+5'
🔁Madson de Souza Silvaout: Haret Ortega
⚽Jose Alvaradoassist: Edgar Guerra
90+9'

Match stats — Leon vs FC Juarez

56%Possession44%
7Shots9
3On target1
1Corners4

Line-ups

Leon 4-1-4-1
  • 181I. MartinezG
  • 7I. MorenoD
  • 14J. RomañaD
  • 3Juan José Guevara PossuD
  • 5S. VegasD
  • 29J. RodríguezM
  • 16J. CortizoM
  • 203J. LaraM
  • 6F. BeltránM
  • 11I. DíazM
  • 27D. CambindoF
Substitutes
  • 19J. AlvaradoF
  • 25P. BellónD
  • 4B. ColulaD
  • 8J. DomínguezM
  • 15S. FierroM
  • 12J. GonzálezG
  • 18E. GuerraM
  • 26S. ReyesM
  • 33A. VillegasD
Coach: J. Gandolfi
FC Juarez 5-3-2
  • 1S. JuradoG
  • 33F. NevárezD
  • 3J. MurilloD
  • 2G. SepúlvedaD
  • 26D. PiñaD
  • 4A. MayorgaD
  • 6MonchuM
  • 183L. SilvaM
  • 21RicardinhoM
  • 9MadsonF
  • 19Ó. EstupiñánF
Substitutes
  • 8Guilherme CastilhoM
  • 14E. LópezD
  • 23H. OrtegaD
  • 13Rodrigo DouradoM
  • 16J. SigalaM
  • 7R. FulgencioM
  • 17L. Martínez DupuyF
  • 201J. CarmonaM
  • 20J. AquinoM
Coach: T. Campos

Form going into Leon vs FC Juarez

Leon

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Club Queretaro21 September 2026
  • W2-0Atletico San Luis15 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Pumas UNAM11 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Atlante FC29 August 2026
  • W2-0Monterrey22 August 2026

FC Juarez

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0Tigres UANL19 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Santos Laguna14 September 2026
  • L0-2CF Pachuca5 September 2026
  • L0-4away to Toluca31 August 2026
  • L1-2Club America22 August 2026

What these results say

  • Leon scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Leon had two goals or fewer.
  • FC Juarez failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC Juarez conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Leon vs FC Juarez

  • 19 April 2026Leon 3–1 FC JuarezLiga MX
  • 27 September 2025FC Juarez 2–0 LeonLiga MX
  • 25 January 2025Leon 1–0 FC JuarezLiga MX
  • 20 October 2024FC Juarez 2–3 LeonLiga MX
  • 27 April 2024FC Juarez 1–1 LeonLiga MX

The full Leon vs FC Juarez record →

Leading scorers: Leon and FC Juarez

Leon

GoalsAssists

  • J. Alvarado51

FC Juarez

GoalsAssists

  • Ó. Estupiñán60

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Leon beat FC Juarez 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Leon at 50%. The goals: Francisco Nevarez (own goal) 76' for Leon, Oscar Estupiñan (penalty) 90+4' for FC Juarez, Jose Alvarado 90+9' for Leon.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.