28 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

Armenia vs Montenegro UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan
Referee: Jose Luis Munuera Montero
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Armenia 2-3 Montenegro.

Before kick-off the model made it 23% Armenia, 27% draw, 50% Montenegro — fair odds of 4.35, 3.70 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Montenegro at 50% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
⚽Erik Piloyan (OG)
⚽Artur Serobyanassist: Ognjen Čančarević
34'
38'
⚽Nikola Krstovićassist: Andrej Djuric
🔁Zhirayr Shaghoyanout: narek hovhannisyan
45'
Artur Serobyan
46'
54'
🔁Dušan Vukovićout: Marko Vešović
🔁Artur Miranyanout: Artur Gharibyan
55'
🔁Ugochukwu Iwuout: karlen hovhannisyan
55'
59'
Milutin Osmajić
⚽Eduard Spertsyanassist: Georgiy Harutyunyan
65'
68'
🔁Stefan Loncarout: Vasilije Adzic
68'
🔁Ognjen Gasevicout: Risto Radunović
69'
🔁milan roganovicout: Aleksa Latkovic
🔁Artur Serobyanout: Edgar Sevikyan
70'
Edgar Sevikyan
76'
79'
🔁Milutin Osmajićout: Stevan Jovetić
82'
Aleksa Latkovic
89'
⚽Aleksa Latkovic
🔁Erik Piloyanout: Gor Manvelyan
90+2'

Match stats — Armenia vs Montenegro

54%Possession46%
10Shots12
4On target4
2Corners4

Line-ups

Armenia 5-4-1
  • 1O. ČančarevićG
  • 2A. BandikyanD
  • 3E. PiloyanD
  • 5A. PetrosyanD
  • 4G. HarutyunyanD
  • 21N. TiknizyanD
  • 9A. SerobyanM
  • 6U. IwuM
  • 10E. SpertsyanM
  • 11Z. ShaghoyanM
  • 18A. MiranyanF
Substitutes
  • 20D. TerteryanD
  • 7E. SevikyanM
  • 15K. NalbandyanM
  • 19K. MuradyanM
  • 12A. BeglaryanG
  • 16G. MatinyanG
  • 13K. AyvazyanD
  • 17A. GharibyanF
  • 8K. HovhannisyanM
Coach: E. Melikyan
Montenegro 4-4-2
  • 1B. PopovićG
  • 2M. RoganovićD
  • 4A. ĐurićD
  • 15S. SavićD
  • 16O. GaševićD
  • 23D. VukovićM
  • 22S. LončarM
  • 8M. JankovićM
  • 21A. BulatovićM
  • 20M. OsmajićF
  • 9N. KrstovićF
Substitutes
  • 5I. VujačićD
  • 19V. ĐukanovićF
  • 10S. JovetićF
  • 18A. LatkovićM
  • 13I. NikićG
  • 12D. PetkovićG
  • 3R. RadunovićD
  • 6S. RubežićD
  • 7M. VešovićD
Coach: Mirko Vucinić

Form going into Armenia vs Montenegro

Armenia

UEFA Nations League

  • W2-0Latvia25 September 2026

Montenegro

UEFA Nations League

  • W2-1Cyprus25 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Armenia411245-14
1Montenegro431074+310

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Armenia vs Montenegro

  • 9 June 2025Montenegro 2–2 ArmeniaFriendlies
  • 24 March 2022Armenia 1–0 MontenegroFriendlies
  • 10 June 2017Montenegro 4–1 ArmeniaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
  • 11 November 2016Armenia 3–2 MontenegroWorld Cup - Qualification Europe

The full Armenia vs Montenegro record →

The result against the call

Montenegro won 3–2 at Armenia. The model had made a win for Montenegro its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Erik Piloyan (own goal) 20' for Montenegro, Artur Serobyan 34' for Armenia, Nikola Krstović 38' for Montenegro, Eduard Spertsyan 65' for Armenia, Aleksa Latkovic 89' for Montenegro.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.