England vs Spain UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: England 2-3 Spain.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% England, 29% draw, 39% Spain — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Spain at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — England vs Spain
Line-ups
- 13J. TraffordG
- 22J. QuansahD
- 5E. KonsaD
- 6M. GuéhiD
- 3N. O'ReillyD
- 8E. AndersonM
- 16M. Lewis-SkellyM
- 7B. SakaM
- 10J. BellinghamM
- 11A. GordonM
- 9H. KaneF
- 2T. Alexander-ArnoldD
- 21E. EzeM
- 18J. GarnerM
- 20M. Gibbs-WhiteM
- 14L. HallD
- 1J. PickfordG
- 17M. RogersM
- 4A. ScottM
- 23J. SteeleG
- 23Unai SimónG
- 12Marc PubillD
- 5Pau Cubarsí ParedesD
- 14Aymeric LaporteD
- 22Marc CucurellaD
- 16RodriM
- 8Fabián RuizM
- 19Lamine YamalM
- 10Dani OlmoM
- 17Nico WilliamsM
- 7Ferran TorresF
- 15Álex BaenaM
- 20PedriM
- 3Álex GrimaldoD
- 2D. HuijsenD
- 9FermínM
- 13Josep MartínezG
- 6Mikel MerinoM
- 21Mikel OyarzabalF
- 11Yeremy PinoM
Form going into England vs Spain
England
All competitions we cover
- W6-4away to France18 July 2026
Spain
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Argentina19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | England | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 9 |
| 1 | Spain | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: England vs Spain
- 14 July 2024Spain 2–1 EnglandEuro Championship
- 15 October 2018Spain 2–3 EnglandUEFA Nations League
- 8 September 2018England 1–2 SpainUEFA Nations League
Leading scorers: England and Spain
England
GoalsAssists
- H. Kane61
- A. Gordon31
Spain
GoalsAssists
- Lamine Yamal41
- Mikel Merino31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Spain won 3–2 at England. The model had made a win for Spain its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Lamine Yamal 2' for Spain, Anthony Gordon 36' for England, Harry Kane 40' for England, Alejandro Baena Rodríguez 60' for Spain, Mikel Oyarzabal 74' for Spain.