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Articles — page 14

Match review · 6 October 2026 · Primera A

Independiente Medellin 0–1 Santa Fe: model review

Independiente Medellin 0–1 Santa Fe finished with Santa Fe winning. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to Independiente Medellin at 37%, and rated the actual result at 33%.

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Match review · 6 October 2026 · UEFA Nations League

Kazakhstan 2–2 Faroe Islands: how the model saw it

Kazakhstan 2–2 Faroe Islands finished with a draw. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to Kazakhstan at 35%, and rated the actual result at 32%.

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Match preview · 6 October 2026 · Serie B

Goias vs Athletic Club MG: a genuine coin flip by the numbers

Goias host Athletic Club MG in a game our model cannot separate: 38% for the home side, 29% for the draw and 33% for the visitors.

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Match preview · 6 October 2026 · Division Profesional - Clausura

Olimpia vs Nacional Asuncion: the model can't split them

Olimpia host Nacional Asuncion in a game our model cannot separate: 38% for the home side, 30% for the draw and 32% for the visitors.

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Match preview · 6 October 2026 · Serie B

Sport Recife vs São Bernardo: why the model makes it Sport Recife at 44%

Our model leans to Sport Recife here, but not by much: 44% (fair odds 2.27) against 28% for the draw. Published scoreline: 2-1, the likeliest exact score within that result.

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Match preview · 6 October 2026 · Serie A

Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico Mineiro: why the model makes it Atletico Paranaense at 48%

Our model leans to Atletico Paranaense here, but not by much: 48% (fair odds 2.08) against 27% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-0, the likeliest exact score within that result.

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Match preview · 6 October 2026 · Serie A

Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo: Cruzeiro favoured at 47%

Our model leans to Cruzeiro here, but not by much: 47% (fair odds 2.13) against 29% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-0, the likeliest exact score within that result.

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Match preview · 6 October 2026 · Serie A

Santos vs Flamengo: why the model makes it Flamengo at 43%

Our model leans to Flamengo here, but not by much: 43% (fair odds 2.33) against 27% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-2, the likeliest exact score within that result.

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Match review · 5 October 2026 · UEFA Nations League

Greece 0–0 Germany: how the model saw it

Greece 0–0 Germany finished with a draw. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to Germany at 40%, and rated the actual result at 30%.

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Match review · 5 October 2026 · UEFA Nations League

Portugal 2–1 Norway: the model called the exact score

Portugal 2–1 Norway finished with Portugal winning. Our model had called it exactly: it published 2-1, a scoreline it rated at 9%.

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Match review · 5 October 2026 · Liga Profesional Argentina

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1–2 Racing Club: model review

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1–2 Racing Club finished with Racing Club winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 41%, though it expected 0-1 rather than 1–2.

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Match review · 5 October 2026 · UEFA Nations League

France 4–1 Belgium: how the model saw it

France 4–1 Belgium finished with France winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 40%, though it expected 1-0 rather than 4–1.

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Match review · 5 October 2026 · UEFA Nations League

Italy 3–1 Türkiye: model review

Italy 3–1 Türkiye finished with Italy winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 47%, though it expected 2-1 rather than 3–1.

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Match review · 5 October 2026 · Primera A

Llaneros 1–2 America de Cali: how the model saw it

Llaneros 1–2 America de Cali finished with America de Cali winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 38%, though it expected 0-1 rather than 1–2.

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Match preview · 5 October 2026 · Serie A

Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama: Botafogo favoured at 44%

Our model leans to Botafogo here, but not by much: 44% (fair odds 2.27) against 28% for the draw. Published scoreline: 2-1, the likeliest exact score within that result.

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Match preview · 5 October 2026 · Serie A

Internacional vs Corinthians: Internacional favoured at 39%

Our model leans to Internacional here, but not by much: 39% (fair odds 2.56) against 31% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-0, the likeliest exact score within that result.

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Match preview · 5 October 2026 · Serie A

RB Bragantino vs Mirassol: why the model makes it RB Bragantino at 41%

Our model leans to RB Bragantino here, but not by much: 41% (fair odds 2.44) against 30% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-0, the likeliest exact score within that result.

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Match review · 4 October 2026 · UEFA Nations League

Croatia 0–7 England: how the model saw it

Croatia 0–7 England finished with England winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 45%, though it expected 1-2 rather than 0–7.

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Match review · 4 October 2026 · UEFA Nations League

Switzerland 2–1 Slovenia: how the model saw it

Switzerland 2–1 Slovenia finished with Switzerland winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 49%, though it expected 1-0 rather than 2–1.

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Match review · 4 October 2026 · UEFA Nations League

Azerbaijan 1–0 Lithuania: the model called the exact score

Azerbaijan 1–0 Lithuania finished with Azerbaijan winning. Our model had called it exactly: it published 1-0, a scoreline it rated at 13%.

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