Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Independiente Medellin 0-1 Santa Fe.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Independiente Medellin, 29% draw, 32% Santa Fe — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Independiente Medellin at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe
Line-ups
- 1S. IchazoG
- 30H. PalaciosD
- 39L. EscorciaD
- 19A. SimarraD
- 26E. MenaD
- 6D. MorenoM
- 14B. PerlazaM
- 34K. KlingerM
- 21A. MarteganiM
- 20J. MontañoM
- 11Y. GonzálezF
- 10D. CatañoM
- 24N. ErazoM
- 18F. FabraD
- 16H. LoboaM
- 33Deimer Estiven Longas RivasG
- 32C. LucumiF
- 4K. MantillaD
- 31D. MorenoM
- 5J. VarelaD
- 1A. MosqueraG
- 13H. PalaciosD
- 18E. OliveraD
- 3V. MorenoD
- 32C. MaflaD
- 77J. ObrianM
- 16D. TorresM
- 7J. TorresM
- 10A. ZapataM
- 9F. FagúndezM
- 19N. BustosF
- 39Cristhian PortocarreroM
- 11H. RodallegaF
- 15I. ScarpetaD
- 38Jimmy MartínezF
- 17M. LoveraF
- 21E. MurilloM
- 43J. CaicedoD
- 12W. AsprillaG
- 6K. ToscanoF
Form going into Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe
Independiente Medellin
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Millonarios30 September 2026
- L0-2away to Junior27 September 2026
- W2-1Jaguares22 September 2026
Santa Fe
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Deportivo Pereira29 September 2026
- L0-1Deportivo Cali23 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Independiente Medellin | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 25 | +3 | 29 |
| 5 | Santa Fe | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 18 | +10 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe
- 23 March 2026Santa Fe 2–1 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
- 21 October 2025Independiente Medellin 1–1 Santa FePrimera A
- 2 October 2025Santa Fe 0–3 Independiente MedellinCopa Colombia
- 24 September 2025Independiente Medellin 1–2 Santa FeCopa Colombia
Leading scorers: Independiente Medellin and Santa Fe
Independiente Medellin
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.
Santa Fe
GoalsAssists
- H. Rodallega173
- F. Fagúndez105
- N. Bustos105
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Santa Fe won 1–0 at Independiente Medellin. The model had leaned towards a win for Independiente Medellin at 39% and given a win for Santa Fe 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Victor Moreno 87' for Santa Fe.