Independiente Medellin
vs
Santa Fe
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Independiente Medellin 1–0 Santa Fe
The model makes it 40% Independiente Medellin, 29% draw, 31% Santa Fe — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Independiente Medellin 1.48, Santa Fe 1.15.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Independiente Medellin at 40% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 1297 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe
Independiente Medellin
- W2-1Jaguares22 September 2026
- D2-2away to Bucaramanga18 September 2026
- L1-2away to Chico12 September 2026
- W3-0away to Deportivo Pereira4 September 2026
- W2-1Llaneros30 August 2026
Santa Fe
- L0-1Deportivo Cali23 September 2026
- W4-1away to Alianza Valledupar19 September 2026
- W1-0Deportes Tolima12 September 2026
- D2-2Fortaleza FC5 September 2026
- W3-2Millonarios3 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Independiente Medellin | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 19 |
| 8 | Santa Fe | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe
- 23 March 2026Santa Fe 2–1 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
- 21 October 2025Independiente Medellin 1–1 Santa FePrimera A
- 2 October 2025Santa Fe 0–3 Independiente MedellinCopa Colombia
- 24 September 2025Independiente Medellin 1–2 Santa FeCopa Colombia
- 29 June 2025Independiente Medellin 1–2 Santa FePrimera A
Leading scorers: Independiente Medellin and Santa Fe
Independiente Medellin
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Santa Fe
- H. Rodallega14 goals2 assists
- N. Bustos9 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Independiente Medellin carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.63 for Santa Fe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for Independiente Medellin and 1.15 for Santa Fe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Independiente Medellin rate 0.83 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Santa Fe rate 0.79 and 1.23.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Independiente Medellin a 5.8% chance of the title and Santa Fe 0.9%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Independiente Medellin the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Independiente Medellin against 1.15 for Santa Fe. Independiente Medellin's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.23 for Santa Fe.