8 October 2026, 22:30 UTC

Santos vs Flamengo Serie A prediction & result

Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Santos
Referee: Anderson Daronco
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Santos 2-2 Flamengo.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Santos, 27% draw, 43% Flamengo — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Flamengo at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Santos5%Draw92%Flamengo3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Gonzalo Escobar
12'
Gustavo Henrique
34'
Álvaro Barreal
36'
41'
Pedro
43'
⚽Danilo Luiz da Silvaassist: Pedro
45+4'
⚽Lucas Paquetáassist: Jorge Carrascal
🔁Álvaro Barrealout: Rony
45'
🔁Philippe Coutinhoout: Neymar da Silva Santos Júnior
45'
Neymar da Silva Santos Júnior
53'
55'
Lucas Paquetá
Christian Oliva
57'
Rodinei
61'
🔁Gustavo Henriqueout: Benjamín Rollheiser
66'
69'
🔁Jorge Carrascalout: Gonzalo Plata
🔁Gonzalo Escobarout: Luan Peres
69'
69'
🔁Lucas Paquetáout: Saúl Ñíguez
•Rony
72'
79'
Jorginho
81'
🔁Samuel Linoout: Luiz Araújo
81'
🔁Pedroout: Bruno Henrique
⚽Neymar da Silva Santos Júnior (pen)
82'
85'
Bruno Henrique
⚽Neymar da Silva Santos Júnior (pen)
88'
90+1'
Emerson Royal

Match stats — Santos vs Flamengo

45%Possession55%
16Shots12
4On target6
5Corners5

Line-ups

Santos 4-4-1-1
  • 1DiógenesG
  • 23RodineiD
  • 4Lucas VeríssimoD
  • 15Willian ArãoD
  • 31G. EscobarD
  • 8Gabriel BontempoM
  • 28C. OlivaM
  • 48Gustavo Henrique PereiraM
  • 22Á. BarrealM
  • 11Philippe CoutinhoM
  • 9Gabriel BarbosaF
Substitutes
  • 18Igor ViniciusD
  • 25Gabriel MeninoM
  • 34João PauloG
  • 5João SchmidtM
  • 45LimaM
  • 14Luan PeresD
  • 30M. TercerosM
  • 10NeymarF
  • 81S. PierriM
Coach: Cuca
Flamengo 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. RossiG
  • 22Emerson RoyalD
  • 13DaniloD
  • 4Léo PereiraD
  • 26Alex SandroD
  • 5E. PulgarM
  • 21JorginhoM
  • 15J. CarrascalM
  • 11Lucas PaquetáM
  • 16Samuel LinoM
  • 9PedroF
Substitutes
  • 51Daniel SalesD
  • 44VitãoD
  • 14A. ValenciaF
  • 19G. PlataF
  • 8SaúlM
  • 7Luiz AraújoF
  • 77Johnny GóesD
  • 49DyogoG
  • 18N. de la CruzM
Coach: Leonardo Jardim

Form going into Santos vs Flamengo

Santos

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to Remo19 September 2026
  • W2-1Cruzeiro13 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Internacional6 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Corinthians30 August 2026
  • D1-1Mirassol23 August 2026

Flamengo

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1RB Bragantino20 September 2026
  • W2-1Corinthians13 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Remo6 September 2026
  • W2-0Mirassol2 September 2026
  • W3-0Botafogo30 August 2026

What these results say

  • Santos went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Santos scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Santos won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Flamengo won every one of these 5 matches.
  • Flamengo scored in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Santos341211115049+147
1Flamengo3423747129+4276

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Santos vs Flamengo

  • 5 April 2026Flamengo 3–1 SantosSerie A
  • 9 November 2025Flamengo 3–2 SantosSerie A
  • 16 July 2025Santos 1–0 FlamengoSerie A
  • 1 November 2023Flamengo 1–2 SantosSerie A
  • 25 June 2023Santos 2–3 FlamengoSerie A
  • 26 October 2022Flamengo 3–2 SantosSerie A

The full Santos vs Flamengo record →

Leading scorers: Santos and Flamengo

Santos

GoalsAssists

  • Gabriel Barbosa154
  • Neymar83

Flamengo

GoalsAssists

  • Pedro206
  • Samuel Lino129

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Santos and Flamengo drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Flamengo at 43% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Danilo Luiz da Silva 43' for Flamengo, Lucas Paquetá 45+4' for Flamengo, Neymar da Silva Santos Júnior (penalty) 82' for Santos, Neymar da Silva Santos Júnior (penalty) 88' for Santos. Sent off: Jorginho (Flamengo) 79'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Santos a 3.9% chance to finish in the top four: 7.0% after a win, 2.8% after a draw, 2.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 2.8%, 1.1 points lower than before the match.

For Flamengo the question was the chance to win the league, 70.8% going in: 78.2% after a win, 68.8% after a draw, 60.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 68.8%, 2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Santos v Flamengo has moved

First published on 24 Sep at 30% / 29% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 30% / 27% / 43%: the biggest move is Flamengo's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Santos win30%=
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Flamengo win43%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.