Santos
vs
Flamengo
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Santos 1–2 Flamengo
The model makes it 30% Santos, 29% draw, 41% Flamengo — fair odds of 3.33, 3.45 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Santos 1.20, Flamengo 1.60.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Santos vs Flamengo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Flamengo at 41% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 1297 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Santos vs Flamengo
Santos
- W2-1away to Remo19 September 2026
- W2-1Cruzeiro13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Internacional6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Corinthians30 August 2026
- D1-1Mirassol23 August 2026
Flamengo
- W2-1RB Bragantino20 September 2026
- W2-1Corinthians13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Remo6 September 2026
- W2-0Mirassol2 September 2026
- W3-0Botafogo30 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 41 | 40 | +1 | 38 |
| 1 | Flamengo | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 55 | 23 | +32 | 60 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Santos vs Flamengo
- 5 April 2026Flamengo 3–1 SantosSerie A
- 9 November 2025Flamengo 3–2 SantosSerie A
- 16 July 2025Santos 1–0 FlamengoSerie A
- 1 November 2023Flamengo 1–2 SantosSerie A
- 25 June 2023Santos 2–3 FlamengoSerie A
- 26 October 2022Flamengo 3–2 SantosSerie A
Leading scorers: Santos and Flamengo
Santos
- Gabriel Barbosa11 goals3 assists
Flamengo
- Pedro16 goals5 assists
- Samuel Lino9 goals7 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Santos carry a model rating of 6.75 against 7.07 for Flamengo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.20 goals for Santos and 1.60 for Flamengo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Santos rate 0.96 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Flamengo rate 1.22 and 0.79.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Santos a 0% chance of the title and Flamengo 66.6%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Flamengo the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.2 expected goals for Santos against 1.6 for Flamengo. Santos's attack/defence rating is 0.96/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.22/0.79 for Flamengo.