Cruzeiro
vs
Sao Paulo
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Cruzeiro 1–0 Sao Paulo
The model makes it 46% Cruzeiro, 29% draw, 25% Sao Paulo — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Cruzeiro 1.64, Sao Paulo 0.92.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cruzeiro at 46% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 1297 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo
Cruzeiro
- W3-1away to Vitoria20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Santos13 September 2026
- W3-1Atletico Paranaense6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Vasco da Gama30 August 2026
- W2-1Flamengo22 August 2026
Sao Paulo
- W1-0Internacional20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Palmeiras12 September 2026
- W2-0Atletico Mineiro5 September 2026
- W2-1RB Bragantino29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Chapecoense23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 42 | 40 | +2 | 45 |
| 11 | Sao Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 32 | 30 | +2 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo
- 4 April 2026Sao Paulo 4–1 CruzeiroSerie A
- 31 August 2025Cruzeiro 1–0 Sao PauloSerie A
- 13 April 2025Sao Paulo 1–1 CruzeiroSerie A
- 16 January 2025Cruzeiro 1–1 Sao PauloFriendlies Clubs
- 15 September 2024Cruzeiro 0–1 Sao PauloSerie A
- 2 June 2024Sao Paulo 2–0 CruzeiroSerie A
Leading scorers: Cruzeiro and Sao Paulo
Cruzeiro
- Matheus Pereira9 goals4 assists
Sao Paulo
- Luciano8 goals2 assists
- J. Calleri8 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cruzeiro carry a model rating of 6.82 against 6.71 for Sao Paulo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.64 goals for Cruzeiro and 0.92 for Sao Paulo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cruzeiro rate 1.01 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sao Paulo rate 0.77 and 1.03.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cruzeiro the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Cruzeiro against 0.92 for Sao Paulo. Cruzeiro's attack/defence rating is 1.01/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.03 for Sao Paulo.