Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Cruzeiro 2-0 Sao Paulo.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Cruzeiro, 29% draw, 24% Sao Paulo — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Cruzeiro at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo
Line-ups
- 81Otávio Eleodoro Rezende CostaG
- 12WilliamD
- 43João MarceloD
- 34JonathanD
- 27G. RojasD
- 29L. RomeroM
- 8GersonM
- 9Bruno RodriguesM
- 10Matheus PereiraM
- 38Felipe MoraisM
- 19Kaio JorgeF
- 84Kelvin Vinicius Barbosa CoutinhoD
- 99K. ArroyoF
- 23FágnerD
- 20Wesley GassovaF
- 5Zé LucasM
- 2Kauã MoraesD
- 11MarquinhosF
- 1CássioG
- 97L. RodríguezF
- 31Carlos CoronelG
- 2R. TolóiD
- 5R. ArboledaD
- 35SabinoD
- 32Pedro LimaM
- 29Pablo MaiaM
- 8Marcos AntônioM
- 18WendellM
- 16D. BobadillaF
- 9J. CalleriF
- 37ArturF
- 19Lucas RamonD
- 58Pedro Henrique Bezerra AraújoM
- 43G. SantanaF
- 48D. FerreiraM
- 46Pedro FerreiraM
- 17André SilvaF
- 54Osorio LuisD
- 41João Pedro Pantiga GomesG
- 49Ryan FranciscoF
Form going into Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo
Cruzeiro
All competitions we cover
- W3-1away to Vitoria20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Santos13 September 2026
- W3-1Atletico Paranaense6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Vasco da Gama30 August 2026
- W2-1Flamengo22 August 2026
Sao Paulo
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Internacional20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Palmeiras12 September 2026
- W2-0Atletico Mineiro5 September 2026
- W2-1RB Bragantino29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Chapecoense23 August 2026
What these results say
- Cruzeiro scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cruzeiro conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Cruzeiro had three goals or more.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sao Paulo had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 55 | 48 | +7 | 60 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo
- 4 April 2026Sao Paulo 4–1 CruzeiroSerie A
- 31 August 2025Cruzeiro 1–0 Sao PauloSerie A
- 13 April 2025Sao Paulo 1–1 CruzeiroSerie A
- 16 January 2025Cruzeiro 1–1 Sao PauloFriendlies Clubs
- 15 September 2024Cruzeiro 0–1 Sao PauloSerie A
- 2 June 2024Sao Paulo 2–0 CruzeiroSerie A
Leading scorers: Cruzeiro and Sao Paulo
Cruzeiro
GoalsAssists
- Kaio Jorge142
- Matheus Pereira97
Sao Paulo
GoalsAssists
- J. Calleri102
- Luciano91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cruzeiro beat Sao Paulo 2–0. The model had made a win for Cruzeiro its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Kaio Jorge 44' for Cruzeiro, Zé Lucas 57' for Cruzeiro.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.