Sport Recife
vs
São Bernardo
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Sport Recife 2–1 São Bernardo
The model makes it 44% Sport Recife, 28% draw, 28% São Bernardo — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sport Recife 1.74, São Bernardo 1.15.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Sport Recife are 9th on 47 points from 31 games; São Bernardo are 10th on 45 points from 31 games — Serie B.
- Sport Recife have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win away to Athletic Club MG.
- São Bernardo are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 3-1 win at home to CRB.
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sport Recife vs São Bernardo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sport Recife at 44% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sport Recife vs São Bernardo
Sport Recife
- W2-1away to Athletic Club MG1 October 2026
- L1-3away to Nautico Recife26 September 2026
- W2-1Juventude19 September 2026
- L1-2away to CRB16 September 2026
- W2-0Ponte Preta11 September 2026
São Bernardo
- W3-1CRB2 October 2026
- D0-0away to Novorizontino25 September 2026
- W1-0Atletico Goianiense19 September 2026
- W2-0away to America Mineiro14 September 2026
- L1-2Londrina10 September 2026
What these results say
- Sport Recife scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sport Recife conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sport Recife had three goals or more.
- São Bernardo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sport Recife | 31 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 42 | 33 | +9 | 47 |
| 10 | São Bernardo | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 43 | 32 | +11 | 45 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sport Recife vs São Bernardo
- 14 June 2026São Bernardo 0–0 Sport RecifeSerie B
Leading scorers: Sport Recife and São Bernardo
Sport Recife
- Chrystian Barletta11 goals3 assists
- Perotti11 goals1 assist
São Bernardo
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 43 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sport Recife carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.44 for São Bernardo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for Sport Recife and 1.15 for São Bernardo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sport Recife rate 0.71 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; São Bernardo rate 0.66 and 1.51.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sport Recife a 0.2% chance of the title and São Bernardo 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sport Recife the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Sport Recife against 1.15 for São Bernardo. Sport Recife's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.51 for São Bernardo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sport Recife at home · São Bernardo away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Sport Recife 31, São Bernardo 31.
Sport Recife score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); São Bernardo have let in 5 there.
São Bernardo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); Sport Recife have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sport Recife
- at Atletico Goianiense11 Oct · Serie Bwin 30%
- vs Fortaleza EC16 Oct · Serie Bwin 38%
- vs Criciuma24 Oct · Serie Bwin 44%
- at Botafogo SP31 Oct · Serie Bwin 38%
- at Operario-PR7 Nov · Serie Bwin 35%
São Bernardo
- at Juventude11 Oct · Serie Bwin 26%
- vs Criciuma18 Oct · Serie Bwin 41%
- vs Vila Nova24 Oct · Serie Bwin 42%
- at Cuiaba31 Oct · Serie Bwin 30%
- at Avai7 Nov · Serie Bwin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.