Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico Mineiro Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Paranaense 2-2 Atletico Mineiro.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Atletico Paranaense, 27% draw, 25% Atletico Mineiro — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Atletico Paranaense at 48%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico Mineiro
Line-ups
- 1MycaelG
- 4Arthur DiasD
- 22C. TeránD
- 37L. EsquivelD
- 12GilbertoM
- 16JádsonM
- 14Luiz GustavoM
- 7S. MendozaM
- 18K. VargasM
- 8João CruzM
- 9K. ViverosF
- 47ChiquetiM
- 5FelipinhoD
- 53DuduM
- 2GilbertoD
- 23SantosG
- 70RenanF
- 3LéoD
- 19Jorge Luis Rivaldo PintoF
- 63Diogo RiquelmeM
- 1Gabriel DelfimG
- 2NatanaelD
- 40VitãoD
- 13LyancoD
- 6Renan LodiD
- 8MayconM
- 39Mamady CisseM
- 28T. CuelloM
- 7FredM
- 11BernardM
- 19ReinierF
- 18T. BorbasF
- 15K. CastañoM
- 3Léo DuarteD
- 92DuduF
- 17Igor GomesM
- 36K. PasciniD
- 25T. PérezM
- 31RobertG
- 30Victor HugoM
Form going into Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico Mineiro
Atletico Paranaense
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Bahia20 September 2026
- D3-3away to Coritiba12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Cruzeiro6 September 2026
- D3-3Fluminense30 August 2026
- W3-2away to Botafogo24 August 2026
Atletico Mineiro
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Chapecoense19 September 2026
- W3-1Fluminense12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sao Paulo5 September 2026
- W2-1Vitoria29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Internacional22 August 2026
What these results say
- Atletico Paranaense scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Paranaense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Atletico Paranaense had three goals or more.
- Atletico Mineiro conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Atletico Paranaense | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 51 | 43 | +8 | 54 |
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 44 | 40 | +4 | 50 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico Mineiro
- 5 April 2026Atletico Mineiro 2–1 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 8 December 2024Atletico Mineiro 1–0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 16 November 2024Atletico Paranaense 1–0 Atletico MineiroSerie A
- 2 September 2023Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Atletico MineiroSerie A
- 23 May 2023Atletico Mineiro 2–1 Atletico ParanaenseCONMEBOL Libertadores
- 30 April 2023Atletico Mineiro 2–1 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
Leading scorers: Atletico Paranaense and Atletico Mineiro
Atletico Paranaense
GoalsAssists
- K. Viveros213
Atletico Mineiro
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 44 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atletico Paranaense and Atletico Mineiro drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Atletico Paranaense at 48% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Kerwin Vargas 8' for Atletico Paranaense, Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte 27' for Atletico Mineiro, Kevin Viveros 90+3' for Atletico Paranaense, Lyanco Evangelista Silveira Neves Vojnović 90+7' for Atletico Mineiro. Sent off: Tomás Pérez (Atletico Mineiro) 73'.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atletico Paranaense a 67.3% chance to finish in the top four: 77.9% after a win, 62.1% after a draw, 52.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 62.1%, 5.2 points lower than before the match.
For Atletico Mineiro the question was the chance to finish in the top four: 18.4% after a win, 8.5% after a draw, 4.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 8.5%.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Atletico Paranaense v Atletico Mineiro has moved
First published on 24 Sep at 44% / 29% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 48% / 27% / 25%: the biggest move is Atletico Paranaense's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Atletico Paranaense win48%▲ +4
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Atletico Mineiro win25%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.