Atletico Paranaense
vs
Atletico Mineiro
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Atletico Paranaense 1–0 Atletico Mineiro
The model makes it 44% Atletico Paranaense, 29% draw, 27% Atletico Mineiro — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Atletico Paranaense 1.66, Atletico Mineiro 1.05.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico Mineiro
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Paranaense at 44% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 1297 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico Mineiro
Atletico Paranaense
- W2-1Bahia20 September 2026
- D3-3away to Coritiba12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Cruzeiro6 September 2026
- D3-3Fluminense30 August 2026
- W3-2away to Botafogo24 August 2026
Atletico Mineiro
- D1-1Chapecoense19 September 2026
- W3-1Fluminense12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sao Paulo5 September 2026
- W2-1Vitoria29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Internacional22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 43 | 32 | +11 | 49 |
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 36 | 32 | +4 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico Mineiro
- 5 April 2026Atletico Mineiro 2–1 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 8 December 2024Atletico Mineiro 1–0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 16 November 2024Atletico Paranaense 1–0 Atletico MineiroSerie A
- 2 September 2023Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Atletico MineiroSerie A
- 23 May 2023Atletico Mineiro 2–1 Atletico ParanaenseCONMEBOL Libertadores
- 30 April 2023Atletico Mineiro 2–1 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
Leading scorers: Atletico Paranaense and Atletico Mineiro
Atletico Paranaense
- K. Viveros18 goals3 assists
Atletico Mineiro
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Atletico Paranaense carry a model rating of 6.83 against 6.77 for Atletico Mineiro. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.05 for Atletico Mineiro. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atletico Paranaense rate 1.03 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atletico Mineiro rate 0.87 and 1.02.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Atletico Paranaense a 0.4% chance of the title and Atletico Mineiro 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Paranaense the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense against 1.05 for Atletico Mineiro. Atletico Paranaense's attack/defence rating is 1.03/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.02 for Atletico Mineiro.