Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
vs
Racing Club
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 2–1 Racing Club
The model makes it 39% Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto, 28% draw, 33% Racing Club — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1.57, Racing Club 1.34.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Racing Club
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto wins, grey are draws, red are Racing Club wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto at 39% here. Across 2804 settled matches, 2131 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Racing Club
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
- L1-2away to Belgrano Cordoba20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Instituto Cordoba15 September 2026
- L0-2Sarmiento Junin4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Huracan29 August 2026
- D0-0San Lorenzo21 August 2026
Racing Club
- W3-1Sarmiento Junin19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Huracan14 September 2026
- L1-2Atletico Tucuman7 September 2026
- L1-3away to Independiente Rivadavia31 August 2026
- D1-1Boca Juniors24 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.6 for Racing Club. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto and 1.34 for Racing Club. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto rate 0.69 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Racing Club rate 0.85 and 1.40.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1308 correct results out of 2804 settled predictions (47%), with 267 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto against 1.34 for Racing Club. Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.4 for Racing Club.