Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Botafogo 1-2 Vasco da Gama.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Botafogo, 28% draw, 28% Vasco da Gama — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Botafogo at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama
Line-ups
- 12Gabriel BatistaG
- 2VitinhoD
- 5N. FerraresiD
- 3Arthur ChavesD
- 13Alex TellesD
- 75HuguinhoM
- 8Danilo SantosM
- 6C. MedinaM
- 22H. ZiyechM
- 11Matheus MartinsM
- 19Arthur CabralF
- 17WarlesonG
- 9Tiquinho SoaresF
- 4M. PonteD
- 29PaulinhoD
- 33L. MonzónD
- 21MarçalD
- 59Kauan ToledoM
- 7Júnior SantosF
- 90DaniloF
- 1Léo JardimG
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
- 4A. SaldiviaD
- 30Robert RenanD
- 66CuiabanoD
- 5S. SosaM
- 18M. HinestrozaM
- 22A. LescanoM
- 23Thiago MendesM
- 9F. ColidioM
- 19Bruno DuarteF
- 7DavidF
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 28AdsonF
- 55Gabriel PereiraD
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 17Nuno MoreiraM
- 8JairM
- 2J. RodríguezD
- 83Ramon RiqueM
Form going into Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama
Botafogo
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Mirassol19 September 2026
- D1-1RB Bragantino12 September 2026
- D0-0Palmeiras6 September 2026
- L0-3away to Flamengo30 August 2026
- L2-3Atletico Paranaense24 August 2026
Vasco da Gama
All competitions we cover
- W5-0Coritiba19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Gremio12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Fluminense6 September 2026
- W3-1Cruzeiro30 August 2026
- L1-4away to Palmeiras23 August 2026
What these results say
- Botafogo did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Botafogo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vasco da Gama scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vasco da Gama conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Vasco da Gama had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Botafogo | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 42 |
| 13 | Vasco da Gama | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 50 | -7 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama
- 5 April 2026Vasco da Gama 1–2 BotafogoSerie A
- 8 February 2026Vasco da Gama 2–0 BotafogoCarioca - 1
- 5 November 2025Botafogo 3–0 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 12 September 2025Botafogo 1–1 Vasco da GamaCopa Do Brasil
- 28 August 2025Vasco da Gama 1–1 BotafogoCopa Do Brasil
Leading scorers: Botafogo and Vasco da Gama
Botafogo
GoalsAssists
- Danilo Santos102
Vasco da Gama
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 43 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Vasco da Gama won 2–1 at Botafogo. The model had leaned towards a win for Botafogo at 44% and given a win for Vasco da Gama 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Alan Lescano 28' for Vasco da Gama, David 51' for Vasco da Gama, Alex Telles 60' for Botafogo. Sent off: Adenor Leonardo Bacchi (Botafogo) 85'.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.