Botafogo
vs
Vasco da Gama
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Botafogo 2–1 Vasco da Gama
The model makes it 44% Botafogo, 28% draw, 28% Vasco da Gama — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Botafogo 1.77, Vasco da Gama 1.20.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Botafogo at 44% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 1297 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama
Botafogo
- L0-2away to Mirassol19 September 2026
- W3-2Gremio16 September 2026
- D1-1RB Bragantino12 September 2026
- D0-0Palmeiras6 September 2026
- L0-3away to Flamengo30 August 2026
Vasco da Gama
- W5-0Coritiba19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Gremio12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Fluminense6 September 2026
- W3-1Cruzeiro30 August 2026
- L1-4away to Palmeiras23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 35 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama
- 5 April 2026Vasco da Gama 1–2 BotafogoSerie A
- 8 February 2026Vasco da Gama 2–0 BotafogoCarioca - 1
- 5 November 2025Botafogo 3–0 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 12 September 2025Botafogo 1–1 Vasco da GamaCopa Do Brasil
- 28 August 2025Vasco da Gama 1–1 BotafogoCopa Do Brasil
- 12 July 2025Vasco da Gama 0–2 BotafogoSerie A
Leading scorers: Botafogo and Vasco da Gama
Botafogo
- Danilo Santos9 goals2 assists
- Arthur Cabral7 goals1 assists
Vasco da Gama
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 34 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Botafogo carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.68 for Vasco da Gama. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for Botafogo and 1.20 for Vasco da Gama. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Botafogo rate 0.90 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vasco da Gama rate 0.89 and 1.25.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Botafogo the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Botafogo against 1.2 for Vasco da Gama. Botafogo's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.25 for Vasco da Gama.