Azerbaijan vs Lithuania UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Azerbaijan 1-0 Lithuania.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Azerbaijan, 32% draw, 30% Lithuania — fair odds of 2.63, 3.13 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Azerbaijan at 38%: of 4,355 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.5% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Azerbaijan vs Lithuania
Line-ups
- 1E. BalayevG
- 4R. MəmmədovD
- 15B. HüseynovD
- 2R. DaşdəmirovD
- 19T. MütəllimovM
- 6A. XaybulayevM
- 20A. IsaevM
- 3R. AbbasovM
- 7T. BayramovF
- 10M. EmreliF
- 18Oruc MəmmədovF
- 14E. BədəlovD
- 21R. AbdullazadəM
- 12A. BayramovG
- 9R. DadashovF
- 17V. İsgəndərliF
- 5A. KrivotsyukD
- 8E. MahmudovM
- 23R. MirzəmmədovG
- 11A. NuriyevM
- 12T. ŠvedkauskasG
- 18V. ArmalasD
- 3E. UtkusD
- 20R. LekiatasD
- 21A. LickūnasM
- 6M. VorobjovasM
- 15G. GineitisM
- 13J. LasickasM
- 14V. SlivkaF
- 10A. KučysF
- 7A. DolžnikovF
- 11E. JankauskasF
- 5K. KažukolovasD
- 22M. BurbaF
- 16Lukas MichelbrinkM
- 1L. PaukštėG
- 9M. RuzgisF
- 8D. ŠlutaM
- 4F. SteponavičiusF
- 2A. TutyškinasD
Form going into Azerbaijan vs Lithuania
Azerbaijan
UEFA Nations League
- D0-0Liechtenstein1 October 2026
- D1-1away to Lithuania27 September 2026
Lithuania
UEFA Nations League
- D1-1Azerbaijan27 September 2026
- W2-0away to Liechtenstein24 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azerbaijan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 2 | Lithuania | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Azerbaijan vs Lithuania
- 27 September 2026Lithuania 1–1 AzerbaijanUEFA Nations League
- 25 March 2019Azerbaijan 0–0 LithuaniaFriendlies
The result against the call
Azerbaijan beat Lithuania 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Azerbaijan at 38%. The goal: Abdulakh khaybulaev 25' for Azerbaijan. Sent off: A. Kučys (Lithuania) 90+7'.
How the call on Azerbaijan v Lithuania has moved
First published on 20 Sep at 47% / 29% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 38% / 32% / 30%: the biggest move is Azerbaijan's chance of winning, down 9 points.
- Azerbaijan win38%▼ −9
- Draw32%▲ +3
- Lithuania win30%▲ +6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.