Internacional
vs
Corinthians
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Internacional 1–0 Corinthians
The model makes it 39% Internacional, 31% draw, 30% Corinthians — fair odds of 2.56, 3.23 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Internacional 1.26, Corinthians 0.95.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Internacional vs Corinthians
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Internacional at 39% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 2139 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Internacional vs Corinthians
Internacional
- L0-1away to Sao Paulo20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Chapecoense12 September 2026
- L2-3Santos6 September 2026
- L2-3away to Bahia30 August 2026
- D0-0Atletico Mineiro22 August 2026
Corinthians
- L1-3Fluminense20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Flamengo13 September 2026
- L1-2Chapecoense6 September 2026
- L0-1Santos30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Coritiba23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 28 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Internacional vs Corinthians
- 6 August 2026Corinthians 2–1 InternacionalCopa Do Brasil
- 2 August 2026Internacional 2–0 CorinthiansCopa Do Brasil
- 5 April 2026Corinthians 0–1 InternacionalSerie A
- 1 October 2025Internacional 1–1 CorinthiansSerie A
- 3 May 2025Corinthians 4–2 InternacionalSerie A
- 5 October 2024Corinthians 2–2 InternacionalSerie A
Leading scorers: Internacional and Corinthians
Internacional
- J. Carbonero7 goals4 assists
Corinthians
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 29 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Internacional carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.67 for Corinthians. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for Internacional and 0.95 for Corinthians. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Internacional rate 0.75 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Corinthians rate 0.73 and 1.07.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Corinthians, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Internacional the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Internacional against 0.95 for Corinthians. Internacional's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.07 for Corinthians.