Italy
vs
Türkiye
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Italy 2–1 Türkiye
The model makes it 47% Italy, 27% draw, 26% Türkiye — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Italy 1.88, Türkiye 1.10.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Italy are 3rd on 4 points from 3 games; Türkiye are bottom on 0 points from 3 games — UEFA Nations League, League A.
- Italy have won 1 of their last 3, most recently a 1-1 draw away to France.
- Türkiye have not won in their last 3, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Belgium.
- Last 4 meetings: Italy 3 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 28 September 2026, ended Türkiye 1–4 Italy.
All Nations League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Italy vs Türkiye
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Italy at 47% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Italy vs Türkiye
Italy
- D1-1away to France2 October 2026
- W4-1away to Türkiye28 September 2026
- L0-2Belgium25 September 2026
Türkiye
- L0-3away to Belgium2 October 2026
- L1-4Italy28 September 2026
- L0-1France25 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Italy | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Italy vs Türkiye
- 28 September 2026Türkiye 1–4 ItalyUEFA Nations League
- 4 June 2024Italy 0–0 TürkiyeFriendlies
- 29 March 2022Türkiye 2–3 ItalyFriendlies
- 11 June 2021Türkiye 0–3 ItalyEuro Championship
The two sides
Italy carry a model rating of 7.28 against 7.07 for Türkiye. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.88 goals for Italy and 1.10 for Türkiye. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Italy rate 1.35 in attack and 0.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Türkiye rate 1.51 and 1.03.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Italy the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Italy against 1.10 for Türkiye. Italy's attack/defence rating is 1.35/0.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.51/1.03 for Türkiye.
Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Italy
- vs France12 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 32%
- at Belgium15 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 32%
Türkiye
- vs Belgium12 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 28%
- at France15 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.