Llaneros
vs
America de Cali
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Llaneros 0–1 America de Cali
The model makes it 30% Llaneros, 33% draw, 37% America de Cali — fair odds of 3.33, 3.03 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (14%).
Expected goals: Llaneros 0.90, America de Cali 1.10.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%, under 2.5: 68%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Llaneros vs America de Cali
Has the model earned this number?
It puts America de Cali at 37% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 2139 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Llaneros vs America de Cali
Llaneros
- W2-0Atletico Nacional21 September 2026
- L2-3away to Internacional de Bogota12 September 2026
- L1-2Deportes Tolima7 September 2026
- L1-2away to Independiente Medellin30 August 2026
- L0-2Millonarios27 August 2026
America de Cali
- W1-0Águilas Doradas24 September 2026
- D1-1away to Deportes Tolima20 September 2026
- L0-1Deportivo Pasto15 September 2026
- W3-0Alianza Valledupar3 September 2026
- D2-2away to Jaguares29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Llaneros | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 14 |
| 1 | America de Cali | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 6 | +16 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Llaneros vs America de Cali
- 26 March 2026America de Cali 0–0 LlanerosPrimera A
- 11 July 2025Llaneros 0–0 America de CaliPrimera A
- 25 January 2025America de Cali 4–3 LlanerosPrimera A
- 7 August 2016Llaneros 1–1 America de CaliPrimera B
- 22 March 2016America de Cali 2–2 LlanerosPrimera B
Leading scorers: Llaneros and America de Cali
Llaneros
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
America de Cali
- Y. Guzmán18 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Llaneros carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.72 for America de Cali. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.90 goals for Llaneros and 1.10 for America de Cali. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Llaneros rate 0.60 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; America de Cali rate 0.78 and 1.03.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Llaneros a 0.2% chance of the title and America de Cali 31.2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives America de Cali the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.9 expected goals for Llaneros against 1.1 for America de Cali. Llaneros's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.03 for America de Cali.