Olimpia
vs
Nacional Asuncion
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Olimpia 1–0 Nacional Asuncion
The model makes it 38% Olimpia, 30% draw, 32% Nacional Asuncion — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Olimpia 1.35, Nacional Asuncion 1.15.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Olimpia are top on 25 points from 12 games; Nacional Asuncion are 3rd on 22 points from 12 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Olimpia are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Libertad Asuncion.
- Nacional Asuncion are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Sportivo Ameliano.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 29 July 2026, ended Nacional Asuncion 2–0 Olimpia.
All Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Olimpia vs Nacional Asuncion
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Olimpia at 38% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Olimpia vs Nacional Asuncion
Olimpia
- W1-0away to Libertad Asuncion28 September 2026
- W3-0away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo20 September 2026
- W3-0Sportivo Luqueno13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Sportivo Trinidense6 September 2026
- D1-1Club Guarani2 September 2026
Nacional Asuncion
- D1-1Sportivo Ameliano25 September 2026
- W3-02 de Mayo18 September 2026
- W1-0away to Rubio NU13 September 2026
- L0-1away to Cerro Porteno7 September 2026
- W3-0Libertad Asuncion2 September 2026
What these results say
- Olimpia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Olimpia scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Olimpia won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nacional Asuncion scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 25 |
| 3 | Nacional Asuncion | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Olimpia vs Nacional Asuncion
- 29 July 2026Nacional Asuncion 2–0 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 4 April 2026Olimpia 3–0 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 8 February 2026Nacional Asuncion 1–2 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 14 September 2025Nacional Asuncion 4–1 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 6 July 2025Olimpia 1–1 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 25 May 2025Nacional Asuncion 1–1 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Olimpia and Nacional Asuncion
Olimpia
- A. Alcaraz7 goals1 assist
- S. Quintana4 goals1 assist
Nacional Asuncion
- H. Benítez5 goals5 assists
- I. Valdez5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Olimpia carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.71 for Nacional Asuncion. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Olimpia and 1.15 for Nacional Asuncion. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Olimpia rate 0.83 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nacional Asuncion rate 0.74 and 1.00.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Olimpia a 47% chance of the title and Nacional Asuncion 24.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Olimpia the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Olimpia against 1.15 for Nacional Asuncion. Olimpia's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1 for Nacional Asuncion.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Olimpia at home · Nacional Asuncion away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Olimpia 12, Nacional Asuncion 12.
Olimpia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Nacional Asuncion have let in 1 there.
Nacional Asuncion score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Olimpia have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Olimpia
- at Rubio NU14 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 47%
- vs 2 de Mayo21 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 51%
- at Sportivo Ameliano29 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 39%
- at Cerro Porteno5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 34%
- vs Deportivo Recoleta8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 62%
Nacional Asuncion
- vs Deportivo Recoleta14 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 62%
- at Club Guarani21 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 33%
- vs Sportivo Trinidense29 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 44%
- at Sportivo Luqueno5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 48%
- vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 66%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.