Our model leans to Nottingham Forest here, but not by much: 41% (fair odds 2.44) against 28% for the draw. Published scoreline: 0-1, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Our model leans to Manchester City here, but not by much: 44% (fair odds 2.27) against 25% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-2, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Botafogo 1–2 Vasco da Gama finished with Vasco da Gama winning. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to Botafogo at 45%, and rated the actual result at 29%.
More →RB Bragantino 1–1 Mirassol finished with a draw. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to RB Bragantino at 43%, and rated the actual result at 29%.
More →CFR 1907 Cluj 1–3 Universitatea Cluj finished with Universitatea Cluj winning. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to CFR 1907 Cluj at 40%, and rated the actual result at 33%.
More →Cruzeiro 2–0 Sao Paulo finished with Cruzeiro winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 53%, though it expected 1-0 rather than 2–0.
More →Our model leans to Atletico Nacional here, but not by much: 54% (fair odds 1.85) against 27% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-0, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Our model leans to CFR 1907 Cluj here, but not by much: 44% (fair odds 2.27) against 27% for the draw. Published scoreline: 2-1, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Aston Villa host Brentford in a game our model cannot separate: 40% for the home side, 26% for the draw and 34% for the visitors.
More →Chelsea host Bournemouth in a game our model cannot separate: 38% for the home side, 25% for the draw and 37% for the visitors.
More →Real Madrid go into this one as a clear favourite by our numbers: 60%, which is fair odds of 1.67. Our published scoreline is 2-1 — the likeliest exact score within that result rather than across the whole match — and the model gives Villarreal 19% to win outright.
More →Chicago Fire 3–1 Vancouver Whitecaps finished with Chicago Fire winning. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to Vancouver Whitecaps at 37%, and rated the actual result at 36%.
More →Gnistan 0–0 Inter Turku finished with a draw. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to Inter Turku at 42%, and rated the actual result at 29%.
More →Ponte Preta 0–2 Juventude finished with Juventude winning. Our model had called it exactly: it published 0-2, a scoreline it rated at 12%.
More →Borussia Dortmund go into this one as a clear favourite by our numbers: 70%, which is fair odds of 1.43. Our published scoreline is 2-0 — the likeliest exact score within that result rather than across the whole match — and the model gives Werder Bremen 11% to win outright.
More →Lens host Lyon in a game our model cannot separate: 40% for the home side, 26% for the draw and 34% for the visitors.
More →Malaga host Espanyol in a game our model cannot separate: 30% for the home side, 32% for the draw and 38% for the visitors.
More →Banfield 1–1 Rosario Central finished with a draw. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to Rosario Central at 37%, and rated the actual result at 31%.
More →Belarus 1–0 Finland finished with Belarus winning. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to Finland at 37%, and rated the actual result at 34%.
More →Croatia 1–2 Spain finished with Spain winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 49%, though it expected 0-1 rather than 1–2.
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