Croatia vs England UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Croatia 0-7 England.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Croatia, 28% draw, 45% England — fair odds of 3.70, 3.57 and 2.22.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
England at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Croatia vs England
Line-ups
- 1D. LivakovićG
- 2J. StanišićD
- 5L. VuškovićD
- 4J. GvardiolD
- 14I. PerišićD
- 10L. ModrićM
- 8M. KovačićM
- 7F. IvanovićM
- 17P. SučićM
- 16M. BaturinaM
- 11P. MusaF
- 23D. KotarskiG
- 18K. JakićM
- 9A. KramarićF
- 20I. MatanovićF
- 22J. MišićM
- 12I. PandurG
- 15Mario PasalicM
- 19Marco PasalicF
- 3I. SmolčićD
- 1J. PickfordG
- 22J. QuansahD
- 5E. KonsaD
- 6M. GuéhiD
- 3L. HallD
- 8E. AndersonM
- 4A. ScottM
- 7B. SakaM
- 10J. BellinghamM
- 11A. GordonM
- 9H. KaneF
- 13J. TraffordG
- 23J. SteeleG
- 17M. RogersM
- 14R. NgumohaF
- 16M. Lewis-SkellyD
- 20M. Gibbs-WhiteM
- 18J. GarnerM
- 21E. EzeM
- 12T. ChalobahD
Form going into Croatia vs England
Croatia
UEFA Nations League
- L1-4away to Spain29 September 2026
- W2-1away to Czechia26 September 2026
England
UEFA Nations League
- W2-0away to Czechia29 September 2026
- L2-3Spain26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Croatia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 3 |
| 2 | England | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Croatia vs England
- 17 June 2026England 4–2 CroatiaWorld Cup
- 13 June 2021England 1–0 CroatiaEuro Championship
- 18 November 2018England 2–1 CroatiaUEFA Nations League
- 12 October 2018Croatia 0–0 EnglandUEFA Nations League
- 11 July 2018Croatia 2–1 EnglandWorld Cup
Leading scorers: Croatia and England
Croatia
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
England
GoalsAssists
- H. Kane61
- A. Gordon31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
England won 7–0 at Croatia. The model had made a win for England its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Harry Kane 8' for England, Jude Bellingham 21' for England, Anthony Gordon 39' for England, Bukayo Saka 45' for England, Harry Kane 53' for England, Bukayo Saka 68' for England, Morgan Rogers 87' for England.