7 October 2026, 00:30 UTC

Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps Major League Soccer prediction & result

Soldier Field, Chicago
Referee: Serhiy Boiko
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Chicago Fire 3-1 Vancouver Whitecaps.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Chicago Fire, 27% draw, 39% Vancouver Whitecaps — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Vancouver Whitecaps at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Chicago Fire99%Draw1%Vancouver Whitecaps0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Jonathan Bambaassist: Anton Saletros
9'
Philip Zinckernagel
19'
⚽Philip Zinckernagel (pen)
27'
45'
🔁Aleksa Cvetkovicout: Thomas Müller
🔁Anton Saletrosout: Mauricio Pineda
45'
⚽Philip Zinckernagelassist: Maren Haile-Selassie
50'
Jonathan Dean
55'
57'
🔁Emmanuel Sabbiout: Bruno Caicedo
58'
🔁Cheikh Sabalyout: Yadaly Diaby
61'
Tate Johnson
73'
⚽Mathías Labordaassist: Oliver Love Larraz
73'
🔁Tate Johnsonout: Sam Adekugbe
🔁Philip Zinckernagelout: Puso Dithejane
76'
🔁Jonathan Bambaout: Robert Lewandowski
76'
⚽Maren Haile-Selassieassist: Robert Lewandowski
88'
89'
🔁Oliver Love Larrazout: Rayan Elloumi
🔁Johan Arath Gomezout: David Poreba
90+3'

Match stats — Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps

48%Possession52%
22Shots15
7On target2
2Corners8

Line-ups

Chicago Fire 4-4-2
  • 44J. CohenG
  • 24J. DeanD
  • 3J. ElliottD
  • 4M. MbokaziD
  • 2Leonardo BarrosoD
  • 11P. ZinckernagelM
  • 6A. SalétrosM
  • 42T. D'AvillaM
  • 19J. BambaM
  • 7M. Haile-SelassieF
  • 18J. GómezF
Substitutes
  • 5S. RogersD
  • 15A. GutmanD
  • 25J. GalG
  • 12P. DithejaneF
  • 21A. Hanche-OlsenD
  • 9R. LewandowskiF
  • 35S. OregelM
  • 22M. PinedaD
  • 29D. PorębaM
Coach: G. Berhalter
Vancouver Whitecaps 4-2-3-1
  • 1Y. TakaokaG
  • 70Rui ModestoD
  • 2M. LabordaD
  • 33T. BlackmonD
  • 28T. JohnsonD
  • 8O. LarrazM
  • 23A. CvetkovićM
  • 7C. SabalyM
  • 25R. GauldM
  • 11E. SabbiM
  • 24B. WhiteF
Substitutes
  • 32I. BoehmerG
  • 14Bruno Steven Caicedo QuiñonezF
  • 77Y. DiabyF
  • 41N. DjordjevicD
  • 19R. ElloumiF
  • 13T. MüllerF
  • 15S. RamíirezM
  • 3S. AdekugbeD
  • 4R. VeselinovićD
Coach: J. Sørensen

Form going into Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps

Chicago Fire

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Charlotte26 September 2026
  • L0-3away to Nashville SC20 September 2026
  • L1-2New England Revolution13 September 2026
  • D1-1Inter Miami10 September 2026
  • D4-4away to Toronto FC5 September 2026

Vancouver Whitecaps

All competitions we cover

  • D3-3DC United27 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Real Salt Lake20 September 2026
  • L1-2Austin13 September 2026
  • W3-0Los Angeles Galaxy10 September 2026
  • L1-3St. Louis City6 September 2026

What these results say

  • Chicago Fire failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Chicago Fire scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Chicago Fire conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Vancouver Whitecaps scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Vancouver Whitecaps had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Chicago Fire34167116454+1055
1Vancouver Whitecaps3419787434+4064

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps

  • 23 March 2025Vancouver Whitecaps 1–3 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
  • 31 August 2023Chicago Fire 0–1 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
  • 24 July 2022Vancouver Whitecaps 1–3 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
  • 10 April 2021Vancouver Whitecaps 3–2 Chicago FireFriendlies Clubs
  • 23 July 2020Chicago Fire 0–2 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Chicago Fire and Vancouver Whitecaps

Chicago Fire

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 64 league goals as a side.

Vancouver Whitecaps

GoalsAssists

  • B. White202

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Chicago Fire beat Vancouver Whitecaps 3–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Vancouver Whitecaps at 39% and given a win for Chicago Fire 34%. The goals: Jonathan Bamba 9' for Chicago Fire, Philip Zinckernagel 50' for Chicago Fire, Mathías Laborda 73' for Vancouver Whitecaps, Maren Haile-Selassie 88' for Chicago Fire.

How the call on Chicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps has moved

First published on 23 Sep at 32% / 27% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 34% / 27% / 39%: the biggest move is Chicago Fire's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Chicago Fire win34%▲ +2
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Vancouver Whitecaps win39%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.