CFR 1907 Cluj
vs
Universitatea Cluj
Liga I prediction
Our model says: CFR 1907 Cluj 2–1 Universitatea Cluj
The model makes it 41% CFR 1907 Cluj, 29% draw, 30% Universitatea Cluj — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: CFR 1907 Cluj 1.60, Universitatea Cluj 1.19.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: CFR 1907 Cluj vs Universitatea Cluj
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CFR 1907 Cluj at 41% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 1297 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into CFR 1907 Cluj vs Universitatea Cluj
CFR 1907 Cluj
- W3-1FC Botosani19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe12 September 2026
- D0-0Farul Constanta4 September 2026
- W3-2away to Csikszereda29 August 2026
- W1-0FCSB23 August 2026
Universitatea Cluj
- W2-0away to FC Voluntari20 September 2026
- W3-0Oțelul14 September 2026
- L0-4away to Universitatea Craiova7 September 2026
- L2-3Petrolul Ploiesti28 August 2026
- L1-2away to Dinamo Bucuresti22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 |
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: CFR 1907 Cluj vs Universitatea Cluj
- 25 April 2026CFR 1907 Cluj 1–0 Universitatea ClujLiga I
- 16 March 2026Universitatea Cluj 2–1 CFR 1907 ClujLiga I
- 7 February 2026CFR 1907 Cluj 3–2 Universitatea ClujLiga I
- 29 September 2025Universitatea Cluj 2–2 CFR 1907 ClujLiga I
- 3 May 2025CFR 1907 Cluj 1–0 Universitatea ClujLiga I
- 31 March 2025Universitatea Cluj 1–0 CFR 1907 ClujLiga I
Leading scorers: CFR 1907 Cluj and Universitatea Cluj
CFR 1907 Cluj
- S. Dražić5 goals1 assists
- A. Cordea5 goals1 assists
Universitatea Cluj
- A. Aliev6 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
CFR 1907 Cluj carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.51 for Universitatea Cluj. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for CFR 1907 Cluj and 1.19 for Universitatea Cluj. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
CFR 1907 Cluj rate 0.73 in attack and 1.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Universitatea Cluj rate 0.74 and 1.46.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Universitatea Cluj, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives CFR 1907 Cluj a 0.1% chance of the title and Universitatea Cluj 1.4%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CFR 1907 Cluj the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.6 expected goals for CFR 1907 Cluj against 1.19 for Universitatea Cluj. CFR 1907 Cluj's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.46 for Universitatea Cluj.