Borussia Dortmund
vs
Werder Bremen
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Borussia Dortmund 2–0 Werder Bremen
The model makes it 61% Borussia Dortmund, 23% draw, 16% Werder Bremen — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Borussia Dortmund 2.52, Werder Bremen 0.75.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Borussia Dortmund at 61% here. Across 2823 settled matches, 673 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
Borussia Dortmund
- W1-0away to VfB Stuttgart19 September 2026
- W3-0SC Paderborn 0712 September 2026
- W3-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim5 September 2026
- W2-0Hamburger SV29 August 2026
Werder Bremen
- W3-2FC Augsburg19 September 2026
- D1-1away to 1. FC Köln12 September 2026
- W3-1RB Leipzig5 September 2026
- L1-4away to SC Freiburg30 August 2026
What these results say
- Borussia Dortmund won every one of these 4 matches.
- Borussia Dortmund scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Borussia Dortmund kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Werder Bremen scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Werder Bremen conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Werder Bremen.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 12 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
- 16 May 2026Werder Bremen 0–2 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- 13 January 2026Borussia Dortmund 3–0 Werder BremenBundesliga
- 25 January 2025Borussia Dortmund 2–2 Werder BremenBundesliga
- 31 August 2024Werder Bremen 0–0 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- 9 March 2024Werder Bremen 1–2 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- 20 October 2023Borussia Dortmund 1–0 Werder BremenBundesliga
Leading scorers: Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen
Borussia Dortmund
- S. Guirassy2 goals2 assists
- F. Nmecha2 goals
Werder Bremen
- N. Füllkrug3 goals
- M. Grüll2 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Borussia Dortmund carry a model rating of 7.26 against 6.73 for Werder Bremen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.52 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 0.75 for Werder Bremen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Borussia Dortmund rate 1.31 in attack and 0.59 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Werder Bremen rate 0.82 and 1.05.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1320 correct results out of 2823 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Borussia Dortmund the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.52 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund against 0.75 for Werder Bremen. Borussia Dortmund's attack/defence rating is 1.31/0.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.05 for Werder Bremen.