Liverpool
vs
Manchester City
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Liverpool 1–2 Manchester City
The model makes it 32% Liverpool, 27% draw, 41% Manchester City — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Liverpool 1.44, Manchester City 1.82.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Liverpool vs Manchester City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Manchester City at 41% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Liverpool vs Manchester City
Liverpool
- W1-0away to Bournemouth20 September 2026
- D0-0Fulham12 September 2026
- W2-0away to Ipswich4 September 2026
- D2-2Nottingham Forest29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Newcastle23 August 2026
Manchester City
- W5-3Sunderland20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Manchester United13 September 2026
- W1-0Coventry5 September 2026
- W4-1away to Crystal Palace28 August 2026
- W2-1Bournemouth23 August 2026
What these results say
- Liverpool went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Liverpool scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Manchester City won every one of these 5 matches.
- Manchester City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 1 | Manchester City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Liverpool vs Manchester City
- 4 April 2026Manchester City 4–0 LiverpoolFA Cup
- 8 February 2026Liverpool 1–2 Manchester CityPremier League
- 9 November 2025Manchester City 3–0 LiverpoolPremier League
- 23 February 2025Manchester City 0–2 LiverpoolPremier League
- 1 December 2024Liverpool 2–0 Manchester CityPremier League
- 10 March 2024Liverpool 1–1 Manchester CityPremier League
Leading scorers: Liverpool and Manchester City
Liverpool
- A. Isak4 goals
Manchester City
- E. Haaland5 goals
- R. Cherki3 goals2 assists
- A. Semenyo2 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Liverpool carry a model rating of 7.1 against 7.28 for Manchester City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for Liverpool and 1.82 for Manchester City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Liverpool rate 1.31 in attack and 0.80 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Manchester City rate 1.64 and 0.69.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Manchester City the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Liverpool against 1.82 for Manchester City. Liverpool's attack/defence rating is 1.31/0.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.64/0.69 for Manchester City.