Liverpool vs Manchester City Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Liverpool 0-3 Manchester City.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Liverpool, 25% draw, 44% Manchester City — fair odds of 3.23, 4.00 and 2.27.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Manchester City at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Liverpool vs Manchester City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Alisson BeckerG
- 33R. AraújoD
- 5J. JacquetD
- 4V. van DijkD
- 6M. KerkezD
- 38R. GravenberchM
- 10A. Mac AllisterM
- 23Víctor MuñozM
- 7F. WirtzM
- 29B. BarcolaM
- 67L. KoumasF
- 73R. NgumohaF
- 14F. ChiesaF
- 42T. NyoniM
- 3W. EndoM
- 30J. FrimpongD
- 21K. TsimikasD
- 2J. GomezD
- 25G. MamardashviliG
- 53J. McConnellM
- 1G. DonnarummaG
- 27Matheus NunesD
- 3Rúben DiasD
- 6M. GuéhiD
- 33N. O'ReillyD
- 5E. AndersonM
- 17E. FernándezM
- 7I. NdiayeM
- 10R. CherkiM
- 42A. SemenyoM
- 9E. HaalandF
- 37AllanF
- 32A. BouaddiM
- 11J. DokuF
- 8M. KovačićM
- 82R. LewisD
- 45A. KhusanovD
- 24J. GvardiolD
- 22Vitor NunesD
- 28G. RulliG
Form going into Liverpool vs Manchester City
Liverpool
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Bournemouth20 September 2026
- D0-0Fulham12 September 2026
- W2-1Atletico Madrid9 September 2026
- W2-0away to Ipswich4 September 2026
- D2-2Nottingham Forest29 August 2026
Manchester City
All competitions we cover
- W5-3Sunderland20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Manchester United13 September 2026
- W2-0away to FC Porto8 September 2026
- W1-0Coventry5 September 2026
- W4-1away to Crystal Palace28 August 2026
What these results say
- Liverpool went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Liverpool scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Manchester City won every one of these 5 matches.
- Manchester City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Liverpool | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 18 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 13 | +8 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Liverpool vs Manchester City
- 4 April 2026Manchester City 4–0 LiverpoolFA Cup
- 8 February 2026Liverpool 1–2 Manchester CityPremier League
- 9 November 2025Manchester City 3–0 LiverpoolPremier League
- 23 February 2025Manchester City 0–2 LiverpoolPremier League
- 1 December 2024Liverpool 2–0 Manchester CityPremier League
Leading scorers: Liverpool and Manchester City
Liverpool
GoalsAssists
- A. Isak70
Manchester City
GoalsAssists
- E. Haaland90
- R. Cherki52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Manchester City won 3–0 at Liverpool. The model had made a win for Manchester City its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Erling Haaland 65' for Manchester City, Jeremy Doku 68' for Manchester City, Rayan Cherki 78' for Manchester City. Sent off: Ryan Gravenberch (Liverpool) 62'. On expected goals it finished 1.02–1.35.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Liverpool a 42.9% chance to finish in the top four: 48.5% after a win, 42.4% after a draw, 38.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 38.9%, 4 points lower than before the match.
For Manchester City the question was the chance to win the league, 48.3% going in: 53.5% after a win, 46.1% after a draw, 42.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.5%, 5.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Liverpool v Manchester City has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 32% / 27% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 31% / 25% / 44%: the biggest move is Manchester City's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Liverpool win31%▼ −1
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Manchester City win44%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.