Real Madrid
vs
Villarreal
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Real Madrid 2–1 Villarreal
The model makes it 54% Real Madrid, 24% draw, 22% Villarreal — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Real Madrid 2.52, Villarreal 1.18.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Real Madrid vs Villarreal
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Madrid at 54% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 675 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Real Madrid vs Villarreal
Real Madrid
- L1-2away to Atletico Madrid20 September 2026
- W3-2away to Elche15 September 2026
- W4-1Rayo Vallecano12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Real Betis4 September 2026
- W4-0Malaga30 August 2026
Villarreal
- W3-1Levante20 September 2026
- W3-1away to Malaga17 September 2026
- L1-2Real Betis14 September 2026
- L2-3Deportivo La Coruna5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Alaves28 August 2026
What these results say
- Real Madrid scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Real Madrid conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Real Madrid had three goals or more.
- Villarreal conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Villarreal scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Villarreal had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 15 |
| 9 | Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Madrid vs Villarreal
- 24 January 2026Villarreal 0–2 Real MadridLa Liga
- 4 October 2025Real Madrid 3–1 VillarrealLa Liga
- 15 March 2025Villarreal 1–2 Real MadridLa Liga
- 5 October 2024Real Madrid 2–0 VillarrealLa Liga
- 19 May 2024Villarreal 4–4 Real MadridLa Liga
- 17 December 2023Real Madrid 4–1 VillarrealLa Liga
Leading scorers: Real Madrid and Villarreal
Real Madrid
- Kylian Mbappé7 goals2 assists
- J. Bellingham3 goals2 assists
Villarreal
- P. Gueye3 goals
- Alberto Moleiro2 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Real Madrid carry a model rating of 7.25 against 7.02 for Villarreal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.52 goals for Real Madrid and 1.18 for Villarreal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Real Madrid rate 1.59 in attack and 0.71 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Villarreal rate 1.35 and 0.98.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Real Madrid a 3.4% chance of the title and Villarreal 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Madrid the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.52 expected goals for Real Madrid against 1.18 for Villarreal. Real Madrid's attack/defence rating is 1.59/0.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.35/0.98 for Villarreal.