Real Madrid vs Villarreal La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Real Madrid 1-0 Villarreal.
Before kick-off the model made it 60% Real Madrid, 21% draw, 19% Villarreal — fair odds of 1.67, 4.76 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Real Madrid at 60%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Real Madrid vs Villarreal
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1T. CourtoisG
- 12T. Alexander-ArnoldD
- 16I. KonatéD
- 22A. RüdigerD
- 18Álvaro FernándezD
- 8F. ValverdeM
- 14A. TchouaméniM
- 15A. GülerM
- 5J. BellinghamM
- 25Y. DiomandeM
- 10Kylian MbappéF
- 6E. CamavingaM
- 17Marc CucurellaD
- 24D. DumfriesD
- 19Carlos EspíF
- 13A. LuninG
- 26Sergio MestreG
- 9EndrickF
- 20Bernardo SilvaM
- 7Vinícius JúniorF
- 25P. GulácsiG
- 3A. FreemanD
- 6Pau NavarroD
- 12Renato VeigaD
- 23Sergi CardonaD
- 8J. FoythM
- 18P. GueyeM
- 11Ilias AkhomachM
- 14Santi ComesañaM
- 10Alberto MoleiroM
- 22Ayoze PérezF
- 15S. MouriñoD
- 7Gerard MorenoF
- 9G. MikautadzeF
- 16C. MaciaM
- 28Joselillo GaitánF
- 27N. El JmiliF
- 5A. DiattaM
- 2Logan CostaD
- 21T. OluwaseyiF
Form going into Real Madrid vs Villarreal
Real Madrid
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Atletico Madrid20 September 2026
- W3-2away to Elche15 September 2026
- W4-1Rayo Vallecano12 September 2026
- W2-1Inter8 September 2026
- L0-1away to Real Betis4 September 2026
Villarreal
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Levante20 September 2026
- W3-1away to Malaga17 September 2026
- L1-2Real Betis14 September 2026
- L2-3away to Borussia Dortmund8 September 2026
- L2-3Deportivo La Coruna5 September 2026
What these results say
- Real Madrid conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Real Madrid scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Real Madrid had three goals or more.
- Villarreal scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Villarreal conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Villarreal had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Real Madrid | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 10 | +21 | 30 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Madrid vs Villarreal
- 24 January 2026Villarreal 0–2 Real MadridLa Liga
- 4 October 2025Real Madrid 3–1 VillarrealLa Liga
- 15 March 2025Villarreal 1–2 Real MadridLa Liga
- 5 October 2024Real Madrid 2–0 VillarrealLa Liga
- 19 May 2024Villarreal 4–4 Real MadridLa Liga
Leading scorers: Real Madrid and Villarreal
Real Madrid
GoalsAssists
- Kylian Mbappé132
- J. Bellingham43
Villarreal
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Real Madrid beat Villarreal 1–0. The model had made a win for Real Madrid its most likely outcome, at 60%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Yan Diomande 62' for Real Madrid. Sent off: Vinícius (Real Madrid) 72'. On expected goals it finished 1.47–0.62.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Real Madrid a 23.9% chance to win the league: 25.7% after a win, 21.3% after a draw, 19.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.7%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.
For Villarreal the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 23.3% going in: 29.8% after a win, 23.0% after a draw, 21.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.3%, 2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Real Madrid v Villarreal has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 54% / 24% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 60% / 21% / 19%: the biggest move is Real Madrid's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Real Madrid win60%▲ +6
- Draw21%▼ −3
- Villarreal win19%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.