Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Crystal Palace 3-1 Nottingham Forest.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Crystal Palace, 28% draw, 41% Nottingham Forest — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Nottingham Forest at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 44W. BenítezG
- 8J. LermaD
- 26C. RichardsD
- 6J. CanvotD
- 25A. KhalailiM
- 20A. WhartonM
- 23Q. TimberM
- 3T. MitchellM
- 18D. KamadaM
- 10Yeremy PinoM
- 22J. Strand LarsenF
- 7I. SarrF
- 19W. HughesM
- 28C. DoucouréM
- 11D. McNeilF
- 30Óscar MinguezaD
- 21H. AhanorD
- 31R. MatthewsG
- 29E. GuessandF
- 9E. NketiahF
- 26M. SelsG
- 34O. AinaD
- 2O. DiomandeD
- 5MurilloD
- 27D. MuñozM
- 21X. SchlagerM
- 24J. McAteeM
- 3N. WilliamsM
- 10M. Gibbs-WhiteM
- 14D. NdoyeM
- 19L. DelapF
- 9C. WoodF
- 12JohnG
- 23JairD
- 25L. NetzD
- 8N. DomínguezM
- 7C. Hudson-OdoiF
- 6I. SangaréM
- 22R. YatesM
- 15A. KalimuendoF
Form going into Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest
Crystal Palace
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Leeds20 September 2026
- W4-0Lech Poznan17 September 2026
- L2-3Ipswich12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Fulham5 September 2026
- L1-4Manchester City28 August 2026
Nottingham Forest
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Coventry19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Aston Villa12 September 2026
- D0-0Tottenham5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Liverpool29 August 2026
- L0-1Leeds22 August 2026
What these results say
- Crystal Palace scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Crystal Palace had three goals or more.
- Nottingham Forest failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nottingham Forest conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 24 | -14 | 7 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest
- 1 February 2026Nottingham Forest 1–1 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 24 August 2025Crystal Palace 1–1 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 5 May 2025Crystal Palace 1–1 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 21 October 2024Nottingham Forest 1–0 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 30 March 2024Nottingham Forest 1–1 Crystal PalacePremier League
The result against the call
Crystal Palace beat Nottingham Forest 3–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Nottingham Forest at 41% and given a win for Crystal Palace 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Dan Ndoye 3' for Nottingham Forest, Daichi Kamada 41' for Crystal Palace, Jefferson Lerma 45+4' for Crystal Palace, Yeremy Pino 59' for Crystal Palace. On expected goals it finished 2.42–2.98.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Crystal Palace a 37.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 31.0% after a win, 37.5% after a draw, 40.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.0%, 6 points lower than before the match.
For Nottingham Forest the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 6.8% going in: 4.4% after a win, 6.7% after a draw, 8.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.8%, 2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 32% / 29% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 31% / 28% / 41%: the biggest move is Nottingham Forest's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Crystal Palace win31%▼ −1
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Nottingham Forest win41%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.