Crystal Palace
vs
Nottingham Forest
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Crystal Palace 0–1 Nottingham Forest
The model makes it 32% Crystal Palace, 29% draw, 39% Nottingham Forest — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Crystal Palace 1.22, Nottingham Forest 1.46.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nottingham Forest at 39% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest
Crystal Palace
- D0-0away to Leeds20 September 2026
- L2-3Ipswich12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Fulham5 September 2026
- L1-4Manchester City28 August 2026
- L0-2away to Everton22 August 2026
Nottingham Forest
- L0-1Coventry19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Aston Villa12 September 2026
- D0-0Tottenham5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Liverpool29 August 2026
- L0-1Leeds22 August 2026
What these results say
- Crystal Palace failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Crystal Palace conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nottingham Forest failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nottingham Forest conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 13 | Nottingham Forest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest
- 1 February 2026Nottingham Forest 1–1 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 24 August 2025Crystal Palace 1–1 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 5 May 2025Crystal Palace 1–1 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 21 October 2024Nottingham Forest 1–0 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 30 March 2024Nottingham Forest 1–1 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 7 October 2023Crystal Palace 0–0 Nottingham ForestPremier League
The two sides
Crystal Palace carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.91 for Nottingham Forest. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.46 for Nottingham Forest. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Crystal Palace rate 0.90 in attack and 1.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nottingham Forest rate 0.95 and 0.85.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nottingham Forest the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Crystal Palace against 1.46 for Nottingham Forest. Crystal Palace's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/0.85 for Nottingham Forest.