Banfield
vs
Rosario Central
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Banfield 1–2 Rosario Central
The model makes it 35% Banfield, 28% draw, 37% Rosario Central — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Banfield 1.48, Rosario Central 1.54.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Banfield vs Rosario Central
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Banfield wins, grey are draws, red are Rosario Central wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rosario Central at 37% here. Across 2811 settled matches, 2138 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Banfield vs Rosario Central
Banfield
- D2-2away to Gimnasia La Plata19 September 2026
- D1-1Barracas Central14 September 2026
- L1-3away to Aldosivi5 September 2026
- L2-3River Plate30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Newell's Old Boys23 August 2026
Rosario Central
- W1-0Argentinos Juniors20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Tigre13 September 2026
- D1-1Newell's Old Boys6 September 2026
- L1-2Gimnasia La Plata29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Talleres Cordoba25 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Leading scorers: Banfield and Rosario Central
Banfield
- M. Méndez6 goals3 assists
- Tiziano Perrota6 goals1 assists
Rosario Central
- Á. Di María8 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Banfield carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.6 for Rosario Central. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for Banfield and 1.54 for Rosario Central. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Banfield rate 0.71 in attack and 1.66 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rosario Central rate 0.77 and 1.28.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1312 correct results out of 2811 settled predictions (47%), with 269 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rosario Central the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Banfield against 1.54 for Rosario Central. Banfield's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.28 for Rosario Central.