10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Aston Villa vs Brentford Premier League prediction & result

Villa Park, Birmingham
Referee: Craig Pawson, England
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Aston Villa 2-2 Brentford.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Aston Villa, 26% draw, 34% Brentford — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Aston Villa at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Aston Villa5%Draw91%Brentford4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
⚽Yehor Yarmoliuk
⚽Nicolas Jackson
12'
35'
Igor Thiago
Emiliano Buendía
45+3'
🔁Matteo Ruggeriout: Aaron Wan-Bissaka
45'
45'
🔁Jannik Schusterout: Aaron Hickey
52'
🔁Kevin Schadeout: Mamadou Sangare
🔁Emiliano Buendíaout: Ibrahim Mbaye
64'
67'
🔁Keane Lewis-Potterout: Dango Ouattara
67'
🔁Yehor Yarmoliukout: Mathias Jensen
Matty Cash
72'
75'
Vitaly Janelt
⚽John McGinnassist: Johan Manzambi
77'
79'
⚽Kristoffer Ajerassist: Jaidon Anthony
82'
Michael Kayode
84'
Kristoffer Ajer
85'
🔁Jaidon Anthonyout: Callum Wilson
🔁João Gomesout: Ross Barkley
86'
🔁Johan Manzambiout: Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha
86'
90+5'
Callum Wilson
90+5'
K. Andrews

Match stats — Aston Villa vs Brentford

52%Possession48%
20Shots14
7On target4
2Corners2
1.84xG1.31

Goals against chances

Aston Villa2 from 1.84 xGabout what the chances were worth
Brentford2 from 1.31 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1
  • 1Z. SuzukiG
  • 2M. CashD
  • 3V. LindelöfD
  • 5T. MingsD
  • 13M. RuggeriD
  • 8B. KamaraM
  • 35João GomesM
  • 7J. McGinnM
  • 10E. BuendíaM
  • 44J. ManzambiM
  • 11N. JacksonF
Substitutes
  • 18T. AbrahamF
  • 6R. BarkleyM
  • 40M. BizotG
  • 26L. BogardeM
  • 14Pau TorresD
  • 17A. GarnachoF
  • 19I. MbayeF
  • 29A. Wan-BissakaD
  • 47Alysson EdwardF
Coach: Unai Emery
Brentford 4-2-3-1
  • 1C. KelleherG
  • 33M. KayodeD
  • 44Jannik SchusterD
  • 20K. AjerD
  • 25E. DioufD
  • 6Y. YarmolyukM
  • 27V. JaneltM
  • 19J. AnthonyM
  • 23K. Lewis-PotterM
  • 7K. SchadeM
  • 9ThiagoF
Substitutes
  • 13C. WilsonF
  • 12H. ValdimarssonG
  • 18M. SangaréM
  • 11D. OuattaraF
  • 8M. JensenM
  • 2A. HickeyD
  • 14Fábio CarvalhoM
  • 48B. FredrickD
  • 4S. van den BergD
Coach: Keith Andrews

Form going into Aston Villa vs Brentford

Aston Villa

All competitions we cover

  • W3-2away to Tottenham19 September 2026
  • L1-2Nottingham Forest12 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Club Brugge KV8 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Hull City5 September 2026
  • L0-1Arsenal31 August 2026

Brentford

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0Chelsea18 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Bournemouth12 September 2026
  • D1-1Sunderland5 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Leeds30 August 2026
  • W3-0Tottenham22 August 2026

What these results say

  • Aston Villa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Brentford went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Brentford scored in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Aston Villa103431417-313
8Brentford103521611+514

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Aston Villa vs Brentford

  • 1 February 2026Aston Villa 0–1 BrentfordPremier League
  • 16 September 2025Brentford 1–1 Aston VillaLeague Cup
  • 23 August 2025Brentford 1–0 Aston VillaPremier League
  • 8 March 2025Brentford 0–1 Aston VillaPremier League
  • 4 December 2024Aston Villa 3–1 BrentfordPremier League

The full Aston Villa vs Brentford record →

Leading scorers: Aston Villa and Brentford

Aston Villa

GoalsAssists

  • N. Jackson61

Brentford

GoalsAssists

  • K. Schade30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Aston Villa and Brentford drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Aston Villa at 40% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Yehor Yarmoliuk 10' for Brentford, Nicolas Jackson 12' for Aston Villa, John McGinn 77' for Aston Villa, Kristoffer Ajer 79' for Brentford. On expected goals it finished 1.84–1.31.

How the call on Aston Villa v Brentford has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 38% / 28% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 40% / 26% / 34%: the biggest move is Aston Villa's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Aston Villa win40%▲ +2
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Brentford win34%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.