10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Chelsea vs Bournemouth Premier League prediction & result

Stamford Bridge, London
Referee: Samuel Barrott, England
Full time5 – 1

Final score: Chelsea 5-1 Bournemouth.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Chelsea, 25% draw, 37% Bournemouth — fair odds of 2.63, 4.00 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Chelsea at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Chelsea99%Draw1%Bournemouth0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Jordan Hendersonassist: Cole Palmer
2'
⚽Morgan Rogersassist: Jordan Henderson
3'
10'
Marcus Tavernier
42'
Adrien Truffert
45'
🔁David Brooksout: Ben Gannon-Doak
⚽João Pedroassist: Pedro Neto
46'
51'
⚽Francisco Evanilson
62'
Tyler Adams
⚽João Pedroassist: Pep Chavarria
67'
69'
Ryan Christie
⚽Jordan Henderson
70'
🔁Moises Caicedoout: Romeo Lavia
72'
🔁João Pedroout: Marco Palestra
72'
72'
🔁Adam Smithout: Juanlu Sánchez
72'
🔁Marcus Tavernierout: Álvaro Rodríguez
73'
🔁Ryan Christieout: Lewis Cook
🔁Pedro Netoout: Danny Welbeck
83'
🔁Morgan Rogersout: Estêvão Willian Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves
84'
84'
🔁Adrien Truffertout: Julio Soler
🔁Cole Palmerout: Malo Gusto
88'

Match stats — Chelsea vs Bournemouth

40%Possession60%
10Shots9
6On target4
1Corners7
1.16xG1.52

Goals against chances

Chelsea5 from 1.16 xGmore than the chances were worth
Bournemouth1 from 1.52 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Chelsea 3-4-3
  • 1E. MartínezG
  • 34Joshua Kofi AcheampongD
  • 5M. LacroixD
  • 6L. ColwillD
  • 7Pedro NetoM
  • 14J. HendersonM
  • 25M. CaicedoM
  • 29Pep ChavarríaM
  • 10C. PalmerF
  • 9João PedroF
  • 17M. RogersF
Substitutes
  • 41EstêvãoF
  • 3W. FofanaD
  • 27M. GustoD
  • 21J. HatoD
  • 45R. LaviaM
  • 2M. PalestraD
  • 39M. PendersG
  • 18D. WelbeckF
  • 23Geovany Tcherno QuendaM
Coach: Xabi Alonso
Bournemouth 4-2-3-1
  • 1Đ. PetrovićG
  • 15A. SmithD
  • 5J. HillD
  • 14António SilvaD
  • 3A. TruffertD
  • 12T. AdamsM
  • 10R. ChristieM
  • 7D. BrooksM
  • 37RayanM
  • 16M. TavernierM
  • 9EvanilsonF
Substitutes
  • 24Juanlu SánchezM
  • 6J. SolerD
  • 30Á. RodríguezF
  • 29D. JebbisonF
  • 11B. DoakF
  • 18B. DiakitéD
  • 20M. Di GregorioG
  • 4L. CookM
  • 27A. TóthM
Coach: M. Rose

Form going into Chelsea vs Bournemouth

Chelsea

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3away to Brentford18 September 2026
  • D2-2Hull City12 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Arsenal6 September 2026
  • W4-3Brighton30 August 2026
  • W3-2away to Fulham24 August 2026

Bournemouth

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Liverpool20 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Real Sociedad17 September 2026
  • D2-2Brentford12 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Newcastle5 September 2026
  • D1-1Everton29 August 2026

What these results say

  • Chelsea conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Chelsea had three goals or more.
  • Chelsea scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Bournemouth conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Bournemouth failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Bournemouth scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Chelsea105141916+316
7Bournemouth104331614+215

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Chelsea vs Bournemouth

  • 30 December 2025Chelsea 2–2 BournemouthPremier League
  • 6 December 2025Bournemouth 0–0 ChelseaPremier League
  • 14 January 2025Chelsea 2–2 BournemouthPremier League
  • 14 September 2024Bournemouth 0–1 ChelseaPremier League
  • 19 May 2024Chelsea 2–1 BournemouthPremier League

The full Chelsea vs Bournemouth record →

Leading scorers: Chelsea and Bournemouth

Chelsea

GoalsAssists

  • João Pedro53
  • M. Rogers51
  • Pedro Neto31

Bournemouth

GoalsAssists

  • Evanilson54
  • M. Tavernier50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Chelsea beat Bournemouth 5–1. The model had made a win for Chelsea its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Jordan Henderson 2' for Chelsea, Morgan Rogers 3' for Chelsea, João Pedro 46' for Chelsea, Francisco Evanilson 51' for Bournemouth, João Pedro 67' for Chelsea, Jordan Henderson 70' for Chelsea. On expected goals it finished 1.16–1.52.

How the call on Chelsea v Bournemouth has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 37% / 27% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 38% / 25% / 37%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.

  1. Chelsea win38%▲ +1
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Bournemouth win37%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.