Chelsea
vs
Bournemouth
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Chelsea 2–1 Bournemouth
The model makes it 37% Chelsea, 27% draw, 36% Bournemouth — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Chelsea 1.76, Bournemouth 1.71.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Chelsea and Bournemouth are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Chelsea vs Bournemouth
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chelsea at 37% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Chelsea vs Bournemouth
Chelsea
- L0-3away to Brentford18 September 2026
- D2-2Hull City12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Arsenal6 September 2026
- W4-3Brighton30 August 2026
- W3-2away to Fulham24 August 2026
Bournemouth
- L0-1Liverpool20 September 2026
- D2-2Brentford12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Newcastle5 September 2026
- D1-1Everton29 August 2026
- L1-2away to Manchester City23 August 2026
What these results say
- Chelsea conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Chelsea had three goals or more.
- Chelsea scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bournemouth did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Bournemouth conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bournemouth scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Chelsea vs Bournemouth
- 30 December 2025Chelsea 2–2 BournemouthPremier League
- 6 December 2025Bournemouth 0–0 ChelseaPremier League
- 14 January 2025Chelsea 2–2 BournemouthPremier League
- 14 September 2024Bournemouth 0–1 ChelseaPremier League
- 19 May 2024Chelsea 2–1 BournemouthPremier League
- 17 September 2023Bournemouth 0–0 ChelseaPremier League
Leading scorers: Chelsea and Bournemouth
Chelsea
- João Pedro3 goals3 assists
- M. Rogers3 goals1 assists
- C. Palmer2 goals2 assists
Bournemouth
- M. Tavernier3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Chelsea carry a model rating of 6.89 against 6.94 for Bournemouth. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.76 goals for Chelsea and 1.71 for Bournemouth. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Chelsea rate 1.21 in attack and 1.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bournemouth rate 1.08 and 0.91.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Chelsea the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Chelsea against 1.71 for Bournemouth. Chelsea's attack/defence rating is 1.21/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.08/0.91 for Bournemouth.