Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Nacional 0-0 Deportes Tolima.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Atletico Nacional, 27% draw, 19% Deportes Tolima — fair odds of 1.85, 3.70 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Atletico Nacional at 54%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima
Line-ups
- 34F. ArmaniG
- 6A. RománD
- 3N. ParraD
- 4C. HaydarD
- 20M. CascoD
- 21J. CampuzanoM
- 22E. CabreraM
- 27Y. PerlazaM
- 23J. RodríguezM
- 10E. CardonaM
- 99I. PovedaF
- 30K. ParraM
- 19J. RengifoF
- 31X. RiosM
- 33S. VelásquezM
- 80J. ZapataM
- 8M. UribeM
- 26F. MarinD
- 25L. MarquinezG
- 32Emmanuel BenítezF
- 1Neto VolpiG
- 33J. MosqueraD
- 80B. RoviraD
- 2A. AnguloD
- 30S. P. Barbosa GomezD
- 32S. GuzmánM
- 14H. MartínezM
- 8E. ValenciaM
- 10L. SánchezM
- 20J. HernándezM
- 15Sergio AguayoF
- 28E. LópezF
- 5J. MeraD
- 34Gustavo Moreno
- 11J. ValenciaF
- 13M. OrtegaG
- 24A. ParraF
- 16V. ReyesM
- 9L. SandovalF
- 29Néifer SánchezF
Form going into Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Junior1 October 2026
- D1-1Millonarios25 September 2026
- L0-2away to Llaneros21 September 2026
Deportes Tolima
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Chico3 October 2026
- D2-2away to Fortaleza FC27 September 2026
- D1-1America de Cali20 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 17 | +20 | 39 |
| 9 | Deportes Tolima | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 23 | 21 | +2 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima
- 23 May 2026Atletico Nacional 3–1 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 16 May 2026Deportes Tolima 0–1 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
- 2 March 2026Deportes Tolima 1–0 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
- 2 August 2025Deportes Tolima 0–0 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
- 20 March 2025Atletico Nacional 4–3 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 22 December 2024Atletico Nacional 2–0 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
Leading scorers: Atletico Nacional and Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
GoalsAssists
- A. Morelos166
- A. Sarmiento117
- E. Cardona104
Deportes Tolima
GoalsAssists
- A. Parra95
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atletico Nacional and Deportes Tolima drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Atletico Nacional at 54% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atletico Nacional a 43.7% chance to finish top of the Clausura: 50.0% after a win, 35.0% after a draw, 28.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 35.0%, 8.7 points lower than before the match.
For Deportes Tolima the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 4.7% going in: 12.4% after a win, 4.2% after a draw, 2.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 4.2%, 0.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Atletico Nacional v Deportes Tolima has moved
First published on 24 Sep at 48% / 29% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 54% / 27% / 19%: the biggest move is Atletico Nacional's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Atletico Nacional win54%▲ +6
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Deportes Tolima win19%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.