Atletico Nacional
vs
Deportes Tolima
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Atletico Nacional 1–0 Deportes Tolima
The model makes it 48% Atletico Nacional, 29% draw, 23% Deportes Tolima — fair odds of 2.08, 3.45 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Atletico Nacional 1.69, Deportes Tolima 0.83.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Nacional at 48% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 1297 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
- L0-2away to Llaneros21 September 2026
- W3-2away to Internacional de Bogota17 September 2026
- W2-0Águilas Doradas13 September 2026
- W5-1away to Alianza Valledupar30 August 2026
- W2-1Deportivo Cali27 August 2026
Deportes Tolima
- D1-1America de Cali20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Once Caldas16 September 2026
- L0-1away to Santa Fe12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Llaneros7 September 2026
- W2-1Cucuta1 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Atletico Nacional | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 18 |
| 7 | Deportes Tolima | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima
- 23 May 2026Atletico Nacional 3–1 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 16 May 2026Deportes Tolima 0–1 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
- 2 March 2026Deportes Tolima 1–0 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
- 2 August 2025Deportes Tolima 0–0 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
- 20 March 2025Atletico Nacional 4–3 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 22 December 2024Atletico Nacional 2–0 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
Leading scorers: Atletico Nacional and Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
- A. Morelos14 goals6 assists
- J. Rengifo7 goals7 assists
- A. Sarmiento7 goals6 assists
Deportes Tolima
- L. Sandoval8 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Atletico Nacional carry a model rating of 6.77 against 6.59 for Deportes Tolima. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.69 goals for Atletico Nacional and 0.83 for Deportes Tolima. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atletico Nacional rate 0.99 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportes Tolima rate 0.69 and 1.18.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Atletico Nacional a 49.6% chance of the title and Deportes Tolima 1.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Nacional the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Atletico Nacional against 0.83 for Deportes Tolima. Atletico Nacional's attack/defence rating is 0.99/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.18 for Deportes Tolima.