Malaga vs Espanyol La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Malaga 1-1 Espanyol.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Malaga, 32% draw, 38% Espanyol — fair odds of 3.33, 3.13 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Espanyol at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Malaga vs Espanyol
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Alfonso HerreroG
- 3PugaD
- 20Fernando CaleroD
- 15Ángel RecioD
- 31RafitaD
- 14Rafa RodríguezM
- 10David LarrubiaM
- 22Dani LorenzoM
- 18Pablo MartínezM
- 11Joaquín MuñozM
- 9ChupeF
- 7H. AbaidaF
- 23Izan MerinoM
- 8Carlos DotorM
- 13Carlos LópezG
- 17Eneko JauregiF
- 4Einar GalileaD
- 6Ramón EnríquezM
- 21Adrián Niño HerediaF
- 5Álex PastorD
- 1Ángel FortuñoG
- 23O. El HilaliD
- 5C. RiedelD
- 6L. CabreraD
- 3Q. HartmanD
- 8Edu ExpósitoM
- 10Pol LozanoM
- 24T. DolanM
- 28Javier HernandezM
- 15Bryan ZaragozaM
- 9Roberto FernándezF
- 26Rafel BauzàM
- 22Álex CalatravaM
- 13M. DmitrovićG
- 16V. DrkušićD
- 18Marcos FernándezF
- 4Urko GonzálezM
- 21Roger HinojoD
- 11Pere MillaM
- 14Unai NúñezD
Form going into Malaga vs Espanyol
Malaga
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Getafe20 September 2026
- L1-3Villarreal17 September 2026
- D1-1away to Celta Vigo13 September 2026
- D0-0Levante6 September 2026
- L0-4away to Real Madrid30 August 2026
Espanyol
All competitions we cover
- L1-3Elche18 September 2026
- L1-2away to Rayo Vallecano15 September 2026
- W2-0away to Osasuna12 September 2026
- D1-1Sevilla6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Real Sociedad29 August 2026
What these results say
- Malaga did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Malaga conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Espanyol scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Espanyol failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Espanyol conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Malaga | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 5 |
| 13 | Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Malaga vs Espanyol
- 2 May 2021Espanyol 3–0 MalagaSegunda División
- 2 November 2020Malaga 0–3 EspanyolSegunda División
- 2 September 2020Espanyol 3–0 MalagaFriendlies Clubs
- 13 May 2018Espanyol 4–1 MalagaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Malaga and Espanyol
Malaga
GoalsAssists
- Adrián Niño Heredia51
Espanyol
GoalsAssists
- Roberto Fernández60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Malaga and Espanyol drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Espanyol at 38% and given a draw 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Bryan Zaragoza 13' for Espanyol, Adrian Nino 90+3' for Malaga. On expected goals it finished 0.77–1.14.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Malaga a 77.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 71.1% after a win, 79.0% after a draw, 81.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 79.0%, 1.7 points higher than before the match.
For Espanyol the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 17.7% going in: 13.5% after a win, 18.3% after a draw, 21.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 18.3%, 0.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.