Gnistan
vs
Inter Turku
Veikkausliiga prediction
Our model says: Gnistan 1–2 Inter Turku
The model makes it 30% Gnistan, 28% draw, 42% Inter Turku — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Gnistan 1.23, Inter Turku 1.68.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Gnistan vs Inter Turku
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Inter Turku at 42% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 1297 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Gnistan vs Inter Turku
Gnistan
- D1-1HJK Helsinki18 September 2026
- W2-1away to AC Oulu12 September 2026
- D1-1KuPS8 September 2026
- D1-1Turku PS31 August 2026
- W3-2away to HJK Helsinki23 August 2026
Inter Turku
- W1-0away to AC Oulu18 September 2026
- W1-0VPS14 September 2026
- L1-2away to HJK Helsinki9 September 2026
- W1-0KuPS31 August 2026
- D0-0away to Turku PS23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Gnistan | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 40 | 32 | +8 | 41 |
| 2 | Inter Turku | 25 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 32 | 18 | +14 | 48 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Gnistan vs Inter Turku
- 26 July 2026Inter Turku 1–2 GnistanVeikkausliiga
- 5 May 2026Gnistan 2–0 Inter TurkuVeikkausliiga
- 17 January 2026Gnistan 0–3 Inter TurkuLeague Cup
- 22 October 2025Inter Turku 2–1 GnistanVeikkausliiga
- 13 September 2025Gnistan 0–2 Inter TurkuVeikkausliiga
- 27 June 2025Gnistan 2–2 Inter TurkuVeikkausliiga
Leading scorers: Gnistan and Inter Turku
Gnistan
- A. Akinyemi3 goals
Inter Turku
- H. Sjögrell6 goals1 assists
- J. Yli-Kokko2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Gnistan carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.5 for Inter Turku. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.23 goals for Gnistan and 1.68 for Inter Turku. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gnistan rate 0.61 in attack and 2.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Inter Turku rate 0.58 and 1.21.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Gnistan a 0.8% chance of the title and Inter Turku 59.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter Turku the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Gnistan against 1.68 for Inter Turku. Gnistan's attack/defence rating is 0.61/2.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.21 for Inter Turku.