Lens
vs
Lyon
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Lens 2–1 Lyon
The model makes it 38% Lens, 28% draw, 34% Lyon — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Lens 1.62, Lyon 1.48.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Lens vs Lyon
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lens at 38% here. Across 2823 settled matches, 2151 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lens vs Lyon
Lens
- L1-2away to Monaco18 September 2026
- D2-2away to Le Mans13 September 2026
- L0-1Lorient5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Strasbourg29 August 2026
- W5-2Auxerre22 August 2026
Lyon
- W4-0Rennes19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Paris FC12 September 2026
- W3-1Auxerre4 September 2026
- D1-1Le Havre29 August 2026
- W2-0away to Toulouse22 August 2026
What these results say
- Lens conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lens failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lens scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lyon went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Lyon scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Lens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 4 |
| 2 | Lyon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lens vs Lyon
- 17 May 2026Lyon 0–4 LensLigue 1
- 5 March 2026Lyon 2–2 LensCoupe de France
- 16 August 2025Lens 0–1 LyonLigue 1
- 4 May 2025Lyon 1–2 LensLigue 1
- 15 September 2024Lens 0–0 LyonLigue 1
- 3 March 2024Lyon 0–3 LensLigue 1
Leading scorers: Lens and Lyon
Lens
- F. Thauvin3 goals2 assists
- F. Ivanović2 goals
Lyon
- E. Nuamah3 goals1 assists
- Z. Athekame2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lens carry a model rating of 6.92 against 6.97 for Lyon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Lens and 1.48 for Lyon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lens rate 1.16 in attack and 1.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lyon rate 1.06 and 0.83.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Lyon, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1320 correct results out of 2823 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lens the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Lens against 1.48 for Lyon. Lens's attack/defence rating is 1.16/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.06/0.83 for Lyon.