Lens vs Lyon Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Lens 2-1 Lyon.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Lens, 26% draw, 34% Lyon — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Lens at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lens vs Lyon
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 40R. RisserG
- 24J. GraditD
- 25I. GaniouD
- 32K. AntonioD
- 2R. AguilarM
- 27M. CuisanceM
- 8Y. TitraouiM
- 14M. UdolM
- 10F. ThauvinM
- 7F. SotocaM
- 11O. ÉdouardF
- 23Saud AbdulhamidD
- 6S. BaidooD
- 16M. GorgelinG
- 21A. HaidaraM
- 29F. IvanovićF
- 28J. KadileF
- 22M. SkóraśF
- 38M. SoaresM
- 5A. BulatovićM
- 1D. GreifG
- 13Z. AthekameD
- 20F. BacherD
- 21R. KluivertD
- 16AbnerD
- 2M. BidstrupM
- 23T. MortonM
- 7E. NuamahM
- 10P. ŠulcM
- 8C. TolissoM
- 17L. OpendaF
- 6T. TessmannM
- 99N. NarteyM
- 11Keito NakamuraF
- 18K. MerahM
- 22Clinton MataD
- 85N. KamaraD
- 24J. DuranvilleF
- 40R. DescampsG
- 26K. BoudacheF
Form going into Lens vs Lyon
Lens
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Monaco18 September 2026
- D2-2away to Le Mans13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Slavia Praha10 September 2026
- L0-1Lorient5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Strasbourg29 August 2026
Lyon
All competitions we cover
- W4-0Rennes19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Anderlecht16 September 2026
- D0-0away to Paris FC12 September 2026
- W3-1Auxerre4 September 2026
- D1-1Le Havre29 August 2026
What these results say
- Lens conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lens failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lens scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lyon went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Lyon scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Lens | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 13 |
| 5 | Lyon | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lens vs Lyon
- 17 May 2026Lyon 0–4 LensLigue 1
- 5 March 2026Lyon 2–2 LensCoupe de France
- 16 August 2025Lens 0–1 LyonLigue 1
- 4 May 2025Lyon 1–2 LensLigue 1
- 15 September 2024Lens 0–0 LyonLigue 1
Leading scorers: Lens and Lyon
Lens
GoalsAssists
- F. Thauvin57
Lyon
GoalsAssists
- E. Nuamah41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lens beat Lyon 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Lens at 40%. The goals: Florian Sotoca 36' for Lens, Matthieu Udol 76' for Lens, Khalis Merah 85' for Lyon. Sent off: Matthieu Udol (Lens) 84'. On expected goals it finished 1.38–1.05.
How the call on Lens v Lyon has moved
First published on 25 Sep at 38% / 28% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 40% / 26% / 34%: the biggest move is Lens's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Lens win40%▲ +2
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Lyon win34%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.