Bulgarian First League predictions

7 matches ahead, from 10 October to 12 October, each with the model's win / draw / win split and most likely score. The clearest favourite: Levski Sofia, 56% against Cherno More Varna. 2 are marked Tight game — the two sides within 3 points, where the draw is a real outcome. How the model works.

Saturday 10 October — 3 matches

12:00 UTC Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna — model 41% / 30% / 29%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.44 · 3.33 · 3.45.
14:30 UTC Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv — model 40% / 31% / 29%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.50 · 3.23 · 3.45.
17:00 UTC Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia — model 42% / 30% / 28%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.38 · 3.33 · 3.57.

Sunday 11 October — 3 matches

12:00 UTC Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse — model 35% / 29% / 36%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 2.86 · 3.45 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach
14:30 UTC Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia — model 18% / 26% / 56%, most likely 0-2, fair odds 5.56 · 3.85 · 1.79.
17:00 UTC CSKA 1948 vs CSKA Sofia — model 35% / 30% / 35%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.86 · 3.33 · 2.86. Tight game · draw in reach

Monday 12 October — 1 match

17:00 UTC Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali — model 48% / 29% / 23%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.08 · 3.45 · 4.35.

Last round: the model's hits and misses

18–20 September: the model called the result of 1 of 6 matches.

Slavia Sofia 1–2 CSKA 1948 — the model said 47% / 30% / 23%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Dunav Ruse 2–2 Botev Vratsa — the model said 36% / 30% / 34%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Septemvri Sofia 0–3 Botev Plovdiv — the model said 35% / 26% / 39%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
Arda Kardzhali 1–1 Cherno More Varna — the model said 57% / 24% / 19%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
Spartak Varna 0–1 Lokomotiv Sofia — the model said 46% / 29% / 25%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–1 CSKA Sofia — the model said 26% / 30% / 44%, most likely 0-1: result missed.